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KDave

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  1. Like
    KDave got a reaction from Derv in My first trade - Shell / BP   
    It means the window for borrowing is closing early, so likely the FED are about to fire up the QE helicopters and drop notes like napalm to keep rates down. Either that or they will do nothing and watch another big crash.
  2. Like
    KDave reacted to HerefordBullyun in My first trade - Shell / BP   
    A picture paints a thousand words 👍

  3. Like
    KDave reacted to Stacktastic in My first trade - Shell / BP   
    MAG & GREATLAND are mines. One gold one silver. 

    Both a little risky, but there are some amazing mines that are 15% down right now. 
    HOC & FRES are two of them Even Barret is down heavy and that's Warren Buffets one. 

    There is a separate thread for this. 

    Everyone seems to be piling into cruises and airlines, but I think that's very reactive as this is not over! 
    Plus I dont think people travelling all over the place is going to be normal or encouraged going forward, as personal freedoms can potentially be thwarted!! 

    I purposefully chose Shell, BP WTI as its a hated undervalued industry based on liquid money (OIL). 
    My complete naivety to the situation/trading made me sell Shell rather than hold it and wait to take profits, but hey ho. 

    In a downturn an oil company a good commodity to own (for now anyway), it potentially going to get messy in the next few years, socially & politically  
    If it goes back down i will certainly buy again, all a bit confusing in the markets this week though, trying to work out what the Nasdaq will do.  
  4. Like
    KDave got a reaction from watchesandwhisky in My first trade - Shell / BP   
    If the market is forward looking reflected in share prices then people/the market are expecting oil to remain at the $40 level for the foreseeable. Does that sound right to you? I can't see it staying low if demand last year was 10m barrels a day higher, given current rig count. You can turn off supply relatively quickly, remaining supply output is used up, low oil prices ensure new investment in supply is vastly reduced or turn off completely. Lockdowns and large inventories from the shock at the start of the year have kept the price low for longer, exacerbating those supply factors mentioned. 
    You can't turn supply back on anywhere near as quickly. It will take months. The period between demand coming back and new supply coming in to meet is very interesting. It might happen quickly, it might not, just something to consider.
    The other part is inflation. If this vaccine is legitimate, then soon people will be back out there circulating a vastly increased money supply (when looking at M2), this will lead to inflation. Its speculation as to when people will want/be allowed to get back to normal, but when it happens, inflation will kick off - we printed the money this time. Oil is right at the start of the production chain and inflation will start to show its head there first.
    Who knows, given the way the rest of the world is using oil while the west remains locked down, perhaps the supply crunch and inflation will coincide. Both factors are when not if. 
  5. Like
    KDave got a reaction from watchesandwhisky in My first trade - Shell / BP   
    The oil stocks are hated, that is why they fell. Its all sentiment and projecting a future of green without consulting the realities of energy in vs energy out. Without oil civilisation would collapse but few understand why, fewer still even care.
    Sentiment is the biggest part of it for shell. CEO said no dividend cut then a month later cut dividends by two thirds, 75 years I think it had maintained or raised. Then Q3 they raise it again by a minuscule 4% - why cut in the first place then? Lots of questions surrounding leadership. 
    As a company (the important bit), its doing alright. Q2 results were a washout as were every other oil company, but Q3 and $40 oil they all did alright, some made a profit of which shell was one. Did the market care? Nope! Sentiment is the driver. The market is wrong about Oil and its wrong about oil companies big time. We are still near 25 year lows, the opportunity is there. 
  6. Like
    KDave reacted to Kman in My first trade - Shell / BP   
    It's annoying for me I was planning to buy shell at lower 10 at worst, ten seemed to be what had developed as a top for the bottom
    Thought I had winter with lockdowns to observe price and time it - I didn't factor in vaccine news at all, wasn't even in the back of my mind 
    Still the initial spike seems to have calmed down already it should retrace back some, I will wait for price to stabilise again regardless 
     
     
  7. Like
    KDave got a reaction from HerefordBullyun in My first trade - Shell / BP   
    Biden has taken power, whether he won the election or not is yet to be confirmed. Trump is president until January I think but I would have thought if he had planned for this, made contingencies, he would have shown his hand by now. Any evidence he does have though will need to be saved for the courts. 
    Long term it makes no difference who is president on the investment front. There is only one way forward and that is to print, and the fundamentals of reality surrounding energy and money have not changed, so I will position accordingly. 
  8. Like
    KDave reacted to HighlandTiger in My first trade - Shell / BP   
    Freetrade seems ok. Although I haven't tried buying anything yet. 
  9. Like
    KDave reacted to Derv in My first trade - Shell / BP   
    212 seems ok. Though I'm using a pad. 
  10. Like
    KDave reacted to Roy in My first trade - Shell / BP   
    Yes it is, perhaps that shows how desperate people are now?
    I'm not a conspiracy theorist but the suggestion that COV-19 was all about the US elections with a potential cure released days after the results is too much to ignore.
    I hope y'all bought some cheap oil 😊
  11. Like
    KDave reacted to HerefordBullyun in My first trade - Shell / BP   
    Silver dipping so looking for my buying opportunity to come soon 😉
  12. Like
    KDave got a reaction from Rumistacker in Why are newer sovereign's 'browner' ?   
    Not 100% on this one but it appears that metallurgy was still experimental during queen Victoria's reign and even into the 20th century refining techniques were still being developed. An extract from the gold sovereign by Michael Marsh;
    "In 1859 a quantity of gold valued at £167,539 was ordered to be melted and returned to the Bank as unfit for coin due its brittle nature; this gold in fact contained small quantities of antimony, arsenic and lead. Ansell asked to experiment with this gold, and although confronted by several obstacles, including the aversion to change, he was eventually given permission. His experiments brought a successful conclusion and as a result all of the gold was re-wrought at very little additional cost, and without annealing. The new sovereigns were in fact so tough that an ordinary man could not break them even with the aid of a pair of pliers. For his efforts Ansell received a letter of thanks from the Master of the Mint plus £100."
    This hints to me that most of the time the gold used in coins at the mint was probably not pure in any measurable sense that we would expect today, but was likely judged by its physical properties and colour. They perhaps made do with what they were given and alloyed it with metals they had available at the mint, which depending on the mint would have included silver, copper, zinc and tin. Pure speculation on what they used in the alloy on my part there, but the gold was evidently not 'pure' and may be attributable to the colour of the older coins. 
    Today you can expect the gold to be pure, and the alloy also to be pure copper with no silver, tin or zinc, hence the horrible rose gold colour of the new coins. Perhaps the impurities in the older coins can attribute to the colour somewhat, or possibly the age/oxidisation of the copper in the alloy has something to do with it? If so then the newer sovereigns may also turn a more pleasant colour with time?
  13. Thanks
    KDave reacted to HighlandTiger in My first trade - Shell / BP   
    That was my thoughts as well. 
  14. Like
    KDave got a reaction from HerefordBullyun in My first trade - Shell / BP   
    Trust the banks will QE. That's all you can trust these days. 
  15. Like
    KDave got a reaction from Kman in My first trade - Shell / BP   
    Look at that, right on time. They have barely started;
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2020/11/05/bank-england-pumps-another-150bn-qe-boost-flagging-economy/
  16. Like
    KDave got a reaction from HerefordBullyun in My first trade - Shell / BP   
    Short term no one knows what will happen. Long term is much easier, it doesn't matter who wins the US election, stimulus is coming 
  17. Like
    KDave reacted to Kman in My first trade - Shell / BP   
    I just closed my EUR/USD positions 
    I'm looking what happened in 2016 and the dollar spiked down 2% during election night, if there's any uncertainty or rioting it could have SL me out
    They were going quite well

    Will see if there's any opportunity to open them again on a spike down
    Also gold spiked 5% previous election night I will try and play that too with a well time open/close if something similar happens
    Will make it a fun night 
  18. Like
    KDave reacted to Kman in My first trade - Shell / BP   
    Oil stocks up despite increased lockdowns, higher production, oil under $40, the dollar looking like it's strengthening, odd 
    US inventories creeped up quite a bit over expectation which didn't look good either

    I thought either insiders must know something we don't or big players are temporarily inflating prices to get out 
    But I think I've got the answer - China raises oil quota 20 percent to leverage low oil prices
    "Against a backdrop of sagging demand and signs of growing supply, the world’s biggest oil buyer raised the quota for use of overseas oil by non-state entities next year by more than 20% versus 2020, according to an announcement from the Ministry of Commerce.
    The increase in the import quota is equivalent to about 823,000 barrels a day"
    With global demand currently at 91 million per day this year an extra 824k is a sizeable increase, but then Libya had only been producing 100,000 per day apparently this year and they've ramped up to 800,000 so kind of cancels it out
    Maybe this is just a temporary bump on some rare good news or maybe it's genuinely a pivot, we shall see 
    If this is accurate shell had a 19 million sell after hours

  19. Like
    KDave reacted to Kman in Silver Monitoring Thread £ (GBP) only.   
    As things look on the charts for the dollar, euro and silver I'm expecting silver could come down heavily sometime soon
  20. Like
    KDave reacted to Martin1983 in Silver Monitoring Thread £ (GBP) only.   
    I just bought some bars if silver comes down again good just buy more
  21. Like
    KDave reacted to HighlandTiger in My first trade - Shell / BP   
    Cheers, I'm learning every day. 😁👍
    I'm liking a bear market at the moment, because I'll be investing lots over the next few years. I like cheap. As long as we are in a bull market in a decades time. 😁
  22. Haha
    KDave got a reaction from Roy in My first trade - Shell / BP   
    Its only red when you look at it, just don't look 
  23. Like
    KDave reacted to Stacktastic in My first trade - Shell / BP   
    I think they will milk it until Jan personally.
    Good for me tbh as my industry is worst hit.
    I just want it over and done with so I can go back to 'normal'

    Im wondering how badly the markets will be hit? I will make a play on Etherium or Silver Paper stocks if they go down enough. 
    And exit my mining shares if or when they hit green. Its too risky for me. 
  24. Haha
    KDave got a reaction from HighlandTiger in My first trade - Shell / BP   
    Its only red when you look at it, just don't look 
  25. Haha
    KDave got a reaction from Derv in My first trade - Shell / BP   
    Its only red when you look at it, just don't look 
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