KDave

I'm going to lay it out again clear as day
From the latest h8 US bank data they bought 52 billion worth of US treasuries in the past week
If yields go up they're worth less, is yields go down they're worth more, so what are they betting on?
Of all the world who is the smartest money? commercial banks, the ones that lend, the ones that can cause inflation, they're betting on deflation by saying inflation you're saying you know better than them
The latest 30 year bond auction had $61b worth of bids but the winning accepted offers totalled $26b, high demand; Is that 61 billion worth of dumb money? bidding on things that will go down soon because of inflation
If government stimulus meant anything for inflation what has it done since March?
If the government start building a bridge of solar farms so what? that doesn't fill in for all the unemployment, all the missing consumer spending and loans, all the business taking out loans to take advantage of that consumer spending, all that healthy currency that should be created 
All that consumer spending that ends up going to imports and circulating the globe, a global dollar shortage ****s the Repo Market and they don't lend to each other and they start liquidating assets and everything crashes
Government spending can't create prosperity and take US GDP levels back to 2019 and 3.5% unemployment and things were deflationary then
Government spending doesn't create new dollars it takes dollars out of the system, there's still a shortage  
The mzm, m2 whatever you want to look at doubled in a decade and oil halved that tells you the money base doubling means nothing for inflation
Inflation is the Feds boogeyman "oo quick go out and spend your money now because it will be worth less tomorrow "  they're trying to trick everyone into spending because spending is what helps the economy
It shouldn't be "don't fight the Fed" it should be "don't fight the commercial banks"
 

It has everything to do with shell and BP, and everything else you can invest in. But you have proven that no one is reading our exchange and the thread is otherwise dead 

It has everything to do with shell and BP, and everything else you can invest in. But you have proven that no one is reading our exchange and the thread is otherwise dead 

You can tell when a thread has died when there are only two opponents left in the ring and they are both liking each other's comments.
Plus the fact that this has nothing to do with Shell/BP, at least directly 🙂
But it is very interesting! Could you start a new thread.....'Inflation or deflation? WITH GRAPHS!'

Maybe you are both partly correct and there will be a kind of stagflation scenario. 
People were already strapped and up to their eyeballs in debt. A large rise in oil prices would mean inflation for life's essentials but would mean less discretionary spending overall. This sounds a lot like 10ish years ago. 
 
 

We are arguing two different cases, there is a strong argument for deflation and carry on as before, nothing will change. I think there is a better argument for inflation and change. The trouble is which one do you think is coming as to which way you invest, those are opposite scenarios.

I reject your apology as there is nothing to apologise for.  I was wondering how this data can help us going forward.

I'll have a look tomorrow in the past to see if I can back up what I'm expecting, maybe something from the 1970's. You won't find anything this last decade for what's coming, do I need to say why again 
Cheers kman these exchanges are very useful I think. 

Don't beat yourself up about shell, you are learning - you got your money back and will likely get an opportunity to get back in unless the fed steps in. It's a learning process that never stops, you are figuring it out. Know thyself and all that. 
I think you bought shell for a quick win on the share price and then when it didn't happen wanted your money out and took the opportunity - trading mentality not investing in the company or oil, not really. You were investing in a share price. For an investor the past 3 days should be irrelevant imo, same applies to being in the red. It's the long term picture that you see that matters. 
Edit - from experience the hardest part of all this is holding on through the gains. It's easy to sit on a loss by comparison. 

2011-2019 m2 double, oil halved 
I'd guess oil (black) came down because of dollar (green) strength 

 
If the m2 mattered to inflation shouldn't it doubling have meant the other way around, dollar down oil up
It's because a lot of the m2 isn't money it's bank reserves
Commercial banks money print, Federal reserve creates collateral accounts aka commercial bank reserves
"Commerce Department data released Friday showed the personal consumption expenditures price index—the Fed’s preferred measure for inflation—rose 0.2% in September when volatile food and energy prices are excluded, after rising 0.3% in August. The year-on-year rise was 1.5% after 1.4% in August, still far short of the Fed’s 2% target." Nov 02, 2020
They can't even get 2% inflation, the talk of "we will tolerate higher inflation" was just talk 
 
 

Gold and silver. One day but not yet uranium is next

It means the window for borrowing is closing early, so likely the FED are about to fire up the QE helicopters and drop notes like napalm to keep rates down. Either that or they will do nothing and watch another big crash.

A picture paints a thousand words 👍

MAG & GREATLAND are mines. One gold one silver. 

Both a little risky, but there are some amazing mines that are 15% down right now. 
HOC & FRES are two of them Even Barret is down heavy and that's Warren Buffets one. 

There is a separate thread for this. 

Everyone seems to be piling into cruises and airlines, but I think that's very reactive as this is not over! 
Plus I dont think people travelling all over the place is going to be normal or encouraged going forward, as personal freedoms can potentially be thwarted!! 

I purposefully chose Shell, BP WTI as its a hated undervalued industry based on liquid money (OIL). 
My complete naivety to the situation/trading made me sell Shell rather than hold it and wait to take profits, but hey ho. 

In a downturn an oil company a good commodity to own (for now anyway), it potentially going to get messy in the next few years, socially & politically  
If it goes back down i will certainly buy again, all a bit confusing in the markets this week though, trying to work out what the Nasdaq will do.  

If the market is forward looking reflected in share prices then people/the market are expecting oil to remain at the $40 level for the foreseeable. Does that sound right to you? I can't see it staying low if demand last year was 10m barrels a day higher, given current rig count. You can turn off supply relatively quickly, remaining supply output is used up, low oil prices ensure new investment in supply is vastly reduced or turn off completely. Lockdowns and large inventories from the shock at the start of the year have kept the price low for longer, exacerbating those supply factors mentioned. 
You can't turn supply back on anywhere near as quickly. It will take months. The period between demand coming back and new supply coming in to meet is very interesting. It might happen quickly, it might not, just something to consider.
The other part is inflation. If this vaccine is legitimate, then soon people will be back out there circulating a vastly increased money supply (when looking at M2), this will lead to inflation. Its speculation as to when people will want/be allowed to get back to normal, but when it happens, inflation will kick off - we printed the money this time. Oil is right at the start of the production chain and inflation will start to show its head there first.
Who knows, given the way the rest of the world is using oil while the west remains locked down, perhaps the supply crunch and inflation will coincide. Both factors are when not if. 

The oil stocks are hated, that is why they fell. Its all sentiment and projecting a future of green without consulting the realities of energy in vs energy out. Without oil civilisation would collapse but few understand why, fewer still even care.
Sentiment is the biggest part of it for shell. CEO said no dividend cut then a month later cut dividends by two thirds, 75 years I think it had maintained or raised. Then Q3 they raise it again by a minuscule 4% - why cut in the first place then? Lots of questions surrounding leadership. 
As a company (the important bit), its doing alright. Q2 results were a washout as were every other oil company, but Q3 and $40 oil they all did alright, some made a profit of which shell was one. Did the market care? Nope! Sentiment is the driver. The market is wrong about Oil and its wrong about oil companies big time. We are still near 25 year lows, the opportunity is there. 

It's annoying for me I was planning to buy shell at lower 10 at worst, ten seemed to be what had developed as a top for the bottom
Thought I had winter with lockdowns to observe price and time it - I didn't factor in vaccine news at all, wasn't even in the back of my mind 
Still the initial spike seems to have calmed down already it should retrace back some, I will wait for price to stabilise again regardless 
 
 

Biden has taken power, whether he won the election or not is yet to be confirmed. Trump is president until January I think but I would have thought if he had planned for this, made contingencies, he would have shown his hand by now. Any evidence he does have though will need to be saved for the courts. 
Long term it makes no difference who is president on the investment front. There is only one way forward and that is to print, and the fundamentals of reality surrounding energy and money have not changed, so I will position accordingly. 

Freetrade seems ok. Although I haven't tried buying anything yet. 

212 seems ok. Though I'm using a pad. 

Yes it is, perhaps that shows how desperate people are now?
I'm not a conspiracy theorist but the suggestion that COV-19 was all about the US elections with a potential cure released days after the results is too much to ignore.
I hope y'all bought some cheap oil 😊

Silver dipping so looking for my buying opportunity to come soon 😉

Not 100% on this one but it appears that metallurgy was still experimental during queen Victoria's reign and even into the 20th century refining techniques were still being developed. An extract from the gold sovereign by Michael Marsh;
"In 1859 a quantity of gold valued at £167,539 was ordered to be melted and returned to the Bank as unfit for coin due its brittle nature; this gold in fact contained small quantities of antimony, arsenic and lead. Ansell asked to experiment with this gold, and although confronted by several obstacles, including the aversion to change, he was eventually given permission. His experiments brought a successful conclusion and as a result all of the gold was re-wrought at very little additional cost, and without annealing. The new sovereigns were in fact so tough that an ordinary man could not break them even with the aid of a pair of pliers. For his efforts Ansell received a letter of thanks from the Master of the Mint plus £100."
This hints to me that most of the time the gold used in coins at the mint was probably not pure in any measurable sense that we would expect today, but was likely judged by its physical properties and colour. They perhaps made do with what they were given and alloyed it with metals they had available at the mint, which depending on the mint would have included silver, copper, zinc and tin. Pure speculation on what they used in the alloy on my part there, but the gold was evidently not 'pure' and may be attributable to the colour of the older coins. 
Today you can expect the gold to be pure, and the alloy also to be pure copper with no silver, tin or zinc, hence the horrible rose gold colour of the new coins. Perhaps the impurities in the older coins can attribute to the colour somewhat, or possibly the age/oxidisation of the copper in the alloy has something to do with it? If so then the newer sovereigns may also turn a more pleasant colour with time?

That was my thoughts as well. 

Trust the banks will QE. That's all you can trust these days.