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Ignacy

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  1. Like
    Ignacy reacted to HillWalkerDundee in Silver squeeze   
    I can see why politics are often banned from forums. So many black and whites when the world is made up of greys.
  2. Like
    Ignacy reacted to stefffana in How much silver to hold   
    Hi, @Bigmarc,
    I believe the real potential of silver is in spot price, not in premium. So, now I am stacking only low premium silver, very easy to sell near spot price (1000g,  500g bars, old british currency, and scrap ). I sold already all high premium coins and I've converted all in sovereigns and another silver low premium.
    Why? Because in next future the industrial demand will generate a rise in spot price and my stack's value will increase and I will do profit only waiting. The shiny silver coins ( now at spot + 60-95% ) will lose from their high premium when the spot price will be high. The market demand will be for cheap silver, not for expensive coins. 
    I can't understand why people are interested to pay now for a silver 1oz coin £28 - £35, equivalent at £18.42 spot price + 52% to +95% premium, when the same metal can be bought easy at 0 to 30% premium in a different shape. I am not talking about numismatic or collectible products. This is another story, I don't know this game, I am talking only about pure stacking.
    About quantity... Depends on your style of life, your age, your plan of retirement, depends on what you want to give to next generation. But a minimum one is around 15kg silver and equal value in low premium gold in your stack.
    This is my opinion, I am not a guru in PM, but I prefer to stay safe, speculating only the spot price and ignoring high premium products. 
     
    Let's imagine a scenario, using today's spot price £18.42/oz silver and a future potential spot price x2.5 = £46.05/oz silver.
     
    John bought today from a dealer 1 kg bar, paying £790.62, VAT and shipping included. This is £24.58/oz, +34% premium.
    Jane bought today 32oz (app.1 kg) silver Royal Arms and she paid £1129, VAT and shipping included. This is £35.28/oz, +91.5 premium.
    After few years, the spot price is £46.05/oz = £1480.7/kg and it is time to sell. 
    John will sell quick 5% over spot, having in hand £1554.7. His pure profit is £764/kg.
    Jane will struggle to sell at 30% over spot, but because the spot is so high, she will accept finally only 10% over spot, having in hand £1628.7. Her pure profit is only £499/kg.
    It is a difference of £265/kg between John and Jane. If the stack is 15kg, the difference is £3975.
     
    But let's talk about Bob. He bought today 1kg scrap silver at spot price. He paid £592. He sold his silver in the same day as John and Jane at spot price, having in hand £1480.7. His pure profit is £888.5.
    Position in this game:
    1. Bob:   £888.5 profit/kg;
    2. John: £764 profit/kg;
    3. Jane: £499 profit/kg.
     
    This is rough, because in reality, Bob was able to buy more scrap than John and Jane, using the same money.
    If we are talking about the same money invested, the difference is huge.
     
    Let's compare now only Bob and Jane, to be more visible this difference.
    Jane paid £1129/kg for Royal Arms and Bob used the same money, buying 1.9kg scrap silver.
    Jane is selling after years at £1628.7 with profit £499.
    Bob is selling after years at £2813.3 with profit £1684, with a difference between them of £1185.
    If the stack is 15kg, the difference of profit between Bob and Jane is £17775.
     
    This is the reason I am trusting in spot price, not in premiums.
    I hope my explanation was clear enough for all new stackers. I know, it is difficult to see the real potential of scrap. But from scrap to treasure it is only a little step.😊 When you will see here scrap silver at spot price, do not hesitate and buy quick!😁
    Happy stacking, guys, happy stacking!
    Stefan.
     
     
     
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