Aran

Taken from the telegraph today
A powerful force is stalking the world’s gold market. It is operating in the shadows. 
None of the normal footprints are visible on the London bullion market or the Chicago Mercantile. Retail goldbugs have not been buyers: ETF gold funds have been shrinking since December. The crowd is piling into the Bitcoin scam instead.
Yet gold has smashed through a four-year barrier around $2,000 an ounce, rising in parabolic fashion since mid-February, and hitting an all-time high of $2,431 on April 11. Is somebody preparing for an escalation of the shadow Third World War?
“It is not a Western institution behind this. It is a massive player with very deep pockets. I have never seen this kind of buying before,” said Ross Norman, a veteran gold trader and now chief executive of Metals Daily.
Gold has been ratcheting up fresh records against the headwinds of a strong dollar, a 70 point jump in 10-year US Treasury yields, and hawkish talk from the Federal Reserve. This mix would normally spell trouble for gold.
Whoever it is – or they are – seems insensitive to cost. Central banks do not behave like this. “They buy on the London benchmark and they don’t chase the price,” said Mr Norman. This rally is happening off books in the OTC market. 
Yes, China’s central bank has been adding to its declared gold reserves for 17 consecutive months, part of the gradual portfolio shift away from US Treasuries and European bonds by the Global South. 
Dollar weaponisation since the war in Ukraine has unnerved every country aligned with the authoritarian axis of China and Russia. None can feel safe parking money in Western securities after Russia’s foreign reserves were frozen.
Yet the scale is modest. The World Gold Council said central banks bought a net 18 tonnes in February: 12 in China, six in Kazakhstan and India, four in Turkey, partly offset by Russian sales. This hardly moves the needle.
The Chinese people certainly have been buying gold, creating traffic jams at the Shuibei jewellery hub. Precious metal is the only refuge from the property crash and the slump on the Shanghai bourse. Tightening capital controls make it hard to smuggle serious sums abroad. 
But this alone cannot account for the price surge, either. Mr Norman says the gold flow to Asia has been within normal bounds.
So let me take two stabs at this mystery, one geopolitical and one financial. It has been clear for three years that Russia, China and Iran are operating in collusion, each feeding opportunistically on each other. All three have fostered belligerent hyper-nationalism as a means of regime survival, and all aim to press their advantage against a fatally complacent West before the window of opportunity closes.
This menace on three fronts has reached a dangerous juncture. None of the major democracies have put their economies on a war-time footing despite the obvious threat.
The West has dropped the ball on Ukraine – or worse, it is preventing Ukraine from hitting Russian oil facilities – and has therefore left the door wide open for a knock-out blow by the Kremlin this summer. 
Iran has been emboldened by Putin’s military comeback. It is also flush with money. Joe Biden is so worried about rising petrol prices that he has turned a blind eye to sanctions busting, letting Iran sell as much crude as it wants. This has enabled Tehran to advance its pawns in the Middle East, and now to risk a direct missile strike against Israel. 
The third shoe has yet to drop but China knows that the West has run down its stock of military kit trying to contain these other two crises. Xi Jinping may never have a better moment to tighten the noose on Taiwan with a naval and air blockade, gaining a stranglehold over the West’s supply of advanced semiconductors that can then be used as a bargaining chip. How would the democracies respond to this?
There is a strong suspicion among gold experts that China is behind the surge in buying, building up a war-fighting bullion chest through state-controlled banks and proxies. But others, too, can see that we are living through a fundamental convulsion of the global order, and that the dollarised financial system will not be the same at the end of it. Gold is the hedge against dystopia.
However, there is a parallel explanation. Covid finally broke our spendthrift governments. The talk in hedge fund land is that some big beasts are taking bets against “fiscal dominance” across the West.
It is a collective judgment that too many countries have pushed public debt beyond 100pc of GDP and beyond the point of no return under prevailing economic ideologies and political regimes. Budget deficits have broken out of historical ranges and are running at structurally untenable levels for this stage of the cycle. 
Central banks will bottle it – under this scenario – in order to mop up issuance of treasury bonds. They will let inflation run hot to help states whittle down debts by stealth default. You might argue that this is what they already did by letting rip with extreme money creation during the pandemic.
The Bank of Japan is refusing to raise rates above zero or halt bond purchases even though core inflation is 2.8pc and the Rengo wage round is running at 5.2pc. This is what a debt trap looks like. With a debt-to-GDP ratio above 260pc, Japan cannot return to sound money without risking a fiscal crisis.
Olivier Blanchard, global debt guru and former IMF chief economist, once told me how this would unfold by the mid-2020s. “One day the BoJ may get a call from the finance ministry saying please think about us – it is a life or death question – and keep rates at zero for a bit longer,” he said. 
The European Central Bank is also in a debt trap. It continued to buy buckets of Club Med bonds even when inflation was over 10pc. This was patently a fiscal rescue for semi-solvent states. The ECB has backed off for now but will be forced to shield Italy again with fiscal transfers disguised as QE in the next downturn.
The Fed has largely monetised the Trump-Biden jumbo deficits. It now faces an invidious choice: either it stays the course against inflation, at the risk of a US funding crisis, a commercial property/banking crisis, and recession, all ending in a return to QE and fiscal dominance; or it cuts rates hard and fast before inflation is under control, also ending in fiscal dominance. Is gold sniffing this out?
Of course, the gold spike may be nothing more than wolf pack speculation by funds orchestrating a squeeze on bullion shorts through the options market, knowing that this sets off a self-fueling feedback loop. If so, the rally will short-circuit soon enough.
My bet is that a big animal with a Chinese accent is bracing for geopolitical or monetary disorder on a traumatic scale.

WWP appears on a few more coins of that era, this is not a bad read 
https://www.wickedwilliam.com/tag/sir-joseph-banks/
"Wellesley-Pole was delighted to discover ‘I am empowered to place such private mark as I choose [on all coin], and I have chosen my initials…WWP’. The press accused him of ‘smuggling his initials’ onto the new sovereign and they were quick to publish his reply: ‘I shall be impeached for putting my initials on the coin of the realm, as Cardinal Wolsey was for placing a cardinal’s hat on the coin of Henry VIII!’  Such was the level of vitriol probably originating from jealous and resentful members of the Royal Academy that Wellesley-Pole was compelled to make a statement in the House of Commons setting the record straight. Pistrucci fared similarly when exercising his right to leave a mark on designs used in the new coins"
I've also found this etching which is very interesting...........As most of us would say this is  Benedetto Pistrucci's work........ All the Roman aka Italian artist were "ripping off"  other artist designs....this is by Pietro Bonato, who  copied it of Stefano Tofanelli who happen to be (Pistrucci teacher)  who intern ripped of Raphael work from the 1500's.      Pistrucci no doubt copied the design elements of the  dragon from his teacher  Tofanelli.
What is also interesting and I've never been able to find it in Pistrucci's work is his hidden cypher...... Pistrucci put this is in his designs, cameos, engravings as Tofanelli was passing young Pistrucci's work off as his own.......
 
 
 
 

This is my 1818 before it was graded - they are stunning coins. 

The Great Engravers aren’t meant to be bullion so you can expect to pay a premium for the work that went in to the design and minting process. As people have mentioned, their presentation boxes and capsules add to the costs. Then you pay a premium because it’s one of the RM’s flagship range and I expect RM wants a bigger slice of the pie after previous GEs went for stupid prices.
The mint are confident they’ll sell the GEs at this price, which leaves the decision down to us to understand if it’s a coin you want to invest in. It’s like Adidas make trainers but they sell some version for more because it’s their premium range and the demand is there. Probably less dust in a shoebox than a RM capsule but that’s a different conversation. 

Manchurian Dollar, rare coin and my coin is the ‘LM-487A Fancy Cloud‘ variety.

Manchurian Dollar, rare coin and my coin is the ‘LM-487A Fancy Cloud‘ variety.

Manchurian Dollar, rare coin and my coin is the ‘LM-487A Fancy Cloud‘ variety.

Manchurian Dollar, rare coin and my coin is the ‘LM-487A Fancy Cloud‘ variety.

Great to see US pre33 on the forum again. Congrats on your beautiful coins (in lovely condition too). The Indian eagles, containing 0.483 ounces of gold, are especially nice to ‘hold in the hand’. A real ‘Goldilocks’ coin.
The Indian half (and quarter!) eagles must be some of the nicest coins ever minted, the sunken design giving them a great three dimensional feel. 
Ever since Theodore Roosevelt went on a mission to replace the Liberty coinage, the Liberty double eagle (1849-1907) has been much disparaged. Apparently he said:
 I think our coinage is artistically of atrocious hideousness
Personally I think the $20 is a beautiful coin and your 1894 double eagle is a lovely example.
Here’s a photo of my 1914S $10. It has a richness and lustre above and beyond any of my other Indian eagles.
If you are interested you can view my collection of Indian Eagles on the NGC Registry where it is ranked number 73 out of 425 collections.
https://www.ngccoin.uk/registry/competitive/united-states/gold-eagles/193/

My spoils from the recent Bullion By Post Black Friday promotion.
A collective saving of £296 off the Royal Mint issue price for the Sovereign & Half Sovereign- and the offer sweetened further with 2 free 1oz Silver Britannia- one for me, and one for the Goldfish in their ‘refer a friend’ promotion.
Essentially the Half Sovereign weighing in at only £45 after factoring in the savings and the freebie Silver- well, it justifies my unplanned purchase. 



 
 

Rafael Maklouf  (3rd Portrait)
Sovereigns were only minted in proof 1985 to 1997. Photo is the 1997 proof set, plus 2 Silver piedfort pounds & my first proof sovereign. The crown (not by Maklouf) was to commemorate the 50th wedding anniversary. Also the 1989 sovereign,  not by Maklouf. An underrated portrait IMO showing the Queen aged 59 - criticised for depicting her looking too young!  In the following year 1998, IRB certainly aged the Queen.
Maklouf, primarily a sculptor, now aged 86 is still Chairman of the ‘Tower Mint’ having set up the original company in 1976, He has a back seat role now, but has been active engraving other countries coinage. In 2017 he took over the Isle of Man’s contract from the Pobjoy Mint who will shut down at the end of the year. Bit of a coincidence!

I love you man and I appreciate everything you do for TSF. You are a champion in the UK gold/silver space ♥️
I have noticed on occasion you are somewhat confrontational with responses to folks on YouTube. It may seem innocent on your behalf but you should understand that as an important cog in the community that your opinions, even if off the cuff, carry a lot more weight than the average person
I strongly disagree about buyer feedback being unimportant. For established members with 100+ trades it's maybe inconsequential but for new members the feedback is essential. The most important metric on TSF is the feedback/trading history. If you see someone has spent £10K or £100K on TSF with no issues, surely that has to carry some weight? 
I agree with your views on selling feedback being more important than buying feedback but that doesn't make buying feedback unimportant. I also agree that a buying history is irrelevant for selling. If I started selling on TSF I would treat myself as a total noob and would ship first before receiving payment (to high rep/trading members only), or use your good self as an intermediary
For separation of buy/sell feedback I think it would be prudent to distinguish between gold and silver. I'll happily buy silver from anyone, especially if it's Britannias, but gold? Not on your nelly. Trusted members only. Selling gold is a different league
Please don't take this as being negative, I've had nothing but great dealings with you and hopefully this will continue for a long time!

I don't see how the excuses of I am too busy to leave feedback does anything other than express arrogance, no-one selling on here or anywhere else is to busy to check if payment has been made how hard is it to take 2 minutes of your time to acknowledge your appreciation.
 

I dont see why there is confusion over feedback, as a seller and a buyer feedback to me is equal in importance.
As soon as a buyer has paid I leave feedback as their part of the transaction is complete, the buyer then leaves feedback when goods have been received and checked as my part of the transaction is done.
It's not rocket science is politeness and common courtesy, as a seller you treat your buyers with respect and go as far as is possible to make the sale as reassuring as reasonably possible it is large sums of hard earned money that is being handed over and as a seller the least you can do is respect that and acknowledge you appreciate their purchase from you.
 
 

Common courtesy and being humble goes a long way.  Being arrogant does not.  

This in my opinion is total BULL, YOU as a seller are responsible to help especially new members and give feedback. Why should you build up your feedback reputation while thinking a buyers feedback means nothing.  YOU are nothing without buyers and your business would go to zilch. 
I will go a step further,  I bought from you very recently, informed you that the item had arrived and left you feedback.  You on the other hand could not be bother to even say thank you for letting me know, let alone leave feedback.  
I said it before and will say it again, a BUSINESS seller should leave feedback to a buyer as soon as they have been paid.  
 

Worth reading this page for anyone else who keeps mentioning Irish coins.
https://www.royalmint.com/annual-sets/2023/definitives/a-journey-towards-nature-embracing-flora-and-fauna-on-british-coinage/

Yes, one of the most beautiful sets of national currency coins ever. Percy Metcalfe designed the series in 1928 and the florin (later 10 pence) remained in circulation until the introduction of the euro (what awful coins they are!).
The florin is one of my favourite coins and, in my opinion, has the edge over the new UK 50 pence design, simpler yet beautiful.

 

Yes, one of the most beautiful sets of national currency coins ever. Percy Metcalfe designed the series in 1928 and the florin (later 10 pence) remained in circulation until the introduction of the euro (what awful coins they are!).
The florin is one of my favourite coins and, in my opinion, has the edge over the new UK 50 pence design, simpler yet beautiful.

 

Yes, one of the most beautiful sets of national currency coins ever. Percy Metcalfe designed the series in 1928 and the florin (later 10 pence) remained in circulation until the introduction of the euro (what awful coins they are!).
The florin is one of my favourite coins and, in my opinion, has the edge over the new UK 50 pence design, simpler yet beautiful.

 

Yes, one of the most beautiful sets of national currency coins ever. Percy Metcalfe designed the series in 1928 and the florin (later 10 pence) remained in circulation until the introduction of the euro (what awful coins they are!).
The florin is one of my favourite coins and, in my opinion, has the edge over the new UK 50 pence design, simpler yet beautiful.

 

Hi All. I previously posted photos of a SOTD 2021 Sovereign which graded NGC MS70 Matte although there were areas of missing ‘frost’ which can look like black spots under the light. This missing frost caused many members anguish with their 2022 SOTD Sovereigns in February, leading to some members either selling their coins on the forum or returning them to the mint.
I’ve just received two 2022 SOTD’s back from NGC. Both have graded MS70 Matte although there are spots visible to the naked eye.
Moral of the story? NGC do not regard these as flaws and will give them the top grade. So unless the marks really annoy you, maybe best to keep the coins? They are present in all ‘my’ matte SOTD’s in one shape or form.

Hi. There seems to be a fair amount of disappointment with the quality of the Platinum Jubilee SOTD Sovereign. In many cases little areas of missing ‘frost’ give the appearance of black marks or little ‘nicks’. As a result many forum members are concerned about how their coin will grade and are sending them back to the RM (not sure if they will get replacement or refund?).
I decided to look at my previous MS70 SOTD Matte Sovereigns and, without exception, they all have the same issue. Either I’m unlucky (though NGC deemed them fit to be 70) or this is part and parcel of this type of product.
I’ve attached a few photos of the 2021 95 privy SOTD Sovereign to illustrate what I mean. (I’ve used a x10 loupe which shows defects invisible to the naked eye).
To those who are considering sending back their SOTD Sovereign to the RM, maybe you might reconsider?

I couldn’t resist. I picked up the 2oz King Charles III Coronation Proof Matte coin, only 100 mintage. I think I will get this one graded as it will sit nicely alongside my 2oz completer coin which also has a mintage of 100 😊

Big shout out to @Clockpuncher for helping to complete my own Great Engravers collection with 2005 1oz gold Britannia designed by the legendary Philip Nathan. Though Philip is known for the iconic original Britannia which we have all come to love he also created 4 other incredibly beautiful 1 year designs in 1997, 2001, 2003 and 2005