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RDHC

Member
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  • Trading Feedback

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    United Kingdom

Reputation Activity

  1. Like
    RDHC reacted to Roy in Gold Monitoring Thread £ GBP only   
    We're all friends here 🤗
  2. Like
    RDHC reacted to Foster88 in Gold Monitoring Thread £ GBP only   
    ‘Jokes’ aside, this isn’t really funny.
    Not the place to post this. The forum is inclusive of everyone. The undertone of homophobia is dire, even said in jest.
  3. Like
    RDHC reacted to Oldun in Gold Monitoring Thread £ GBP only   
    Still in a corrective mode but losing downside traction according to one trader.
  4. Like
    RDHC reacted to KRO in Gold Monitoring Thread £ GBP only   
    Ross Norman update (looking at $2250 as the base camp😀)

     
    Not all buying is equal and that is becoming apparent to gold. 
    Arguably the physical buying interest from central banks as well as Chinese retail purchases underpinning this market could count as some of the highest quality in that neither is likely to return to the market irrespective of the price action.
    The same cannot be said of the more recent speculative flows, which by their nature, are arguably agnostic to the asset itself … it's a pure exercise in making money. Long or short … gold or soda ash futures … who cares. Like 12 year olds high on e-numbers, the futures market can be a riot of activity, rife with rumour and everyone keen to jump on the latest fad. 
    If you marked the 'new gold paradigm' to 1st March 2024 before the yellow metal went near vertical … and showed little regard for neither financial market indicators nor geopolitics … then arguably the gold floor is comfortably set at around $2060. That said, physical buyers who missed the rally will likely jump in as the market retraces, setting a much higher floor. The charts offer some guidance – with the 100 dma at $2250 and this will likely be the first port of call … will it hold ? … that depends upon the level of long liquidation coming out of China, because that seems to be the driving force just now. 
    So China has tightened trading conditions as a safeguard in a gold market thatb it clearly deems to be too hot. 
    On April 8th, the Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE) advised gold margin requirements would be tightened from 10% to 12%, and the daily price limit would be adjusted from 9% to 11%. On April 12th, further adjustments were made. Starting from the close of clearing on April 15th, the the margin requirement for gold contracts was increased from CNY 45,000 per lot to CNY 51,000 per lot. Similar adjustments were made to silver after it hit “limit up” on April 8th.
    More importantly, on April 10th, the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE or Shiffy) similarly announced the reduction of trading limits for gold futures, with a maximum number of contracts for intraday gold trading set at 2,800 lots. On April 16th, the SHFE further adjusted the daily price limit for gold and silver futures to 8%, while increasing the hedging trading margin requirement to 9% and the speculative trading margin requirement to 10%.
    These changes provide significant speed bumps on the motorway that is gold trading. It is a passion-killer. It follows that Chinese speculators would look elsewhere.
    Gold saw the largest price decline yesterday in 14 months followed by a further significant declines today with large volumes being traded in Shiffy. 
     
    There is a sense that the speculative froth is leaving the market and as it declines, gold will re-engage with its core physical buyers who have been left behind. If you want to know where that floor is then the charts will give you a view – and if not, Indian bargain-hunting is normally a great bell-wether. In short, this is healthy for gold. 
    Rumours that the Chinese government would be building significant stockpiles of nickel sent prices up by a massive 6.5% on Shiffy, just as gold cratered … a coincidence ? I think not. 
    Meanwhile domestic Chinese gold ETF buying, normally the preserve of a footnote, has accelerated with 28.5 tonnes of gold buying in the last 4 weeks. So as speculators depart stage left, it appears that 'quality' gold investment is re-entering stage right. So grounds for encouragement.
     
  5. Like
    RDHC reacted to theman73 in Gold Monitoring Thread £ GBP only   
    I found the 7 October images horrifying 
  6. Like
    RDHC reacted to Upsidedown in Gold Monitoring Thread £ GBP only   
    Shahed drones aren't that sophisticated, very slow.
    No match for super advanced Israeli iron dome defence batteries.
    Iran know it will fail, they don't care, all they need to do is pretend they flattened Israel and their citizens can either believe it or get beaten to death.
  7. Like
    RDHC reacted to BitcoinBug in Gold Monitoring Thread £ GBP only   
    Will these two ever meet again? And which one will run into the arms of the other? All that crazy spending these last years (and decades before) is not going to end well (my opinion, might be wrong but I can't see how gold can't keep but going up)

  8. Like
    RDHC reacted to HonestMoneyGoldSilver in When do you stop your stacking journey?   
    Are we soliciting serious answers?
    When you have enough in precious metals to cover all of your bills and outgoings for 5 years, including your dependants
    Metals aren't supposed to be 100% of your investment portfolio. Some assets that produce yield (like stocks, bonds, ISAs, real estate) are essential unless you plan on selling your metals to fund your retirement
  9. Like
    RDHC reacted to dicker in Zimbabwe announces return to gold standard   
    A thug, and thief.  I remember reading that his personal wealth was estimated to be well north of £1BN in the 2000’s at the same time as citizens of Zimbabwe starved.  
  10. Like
    RDHC reacted to motorbikez in Zimbabwe announces return to gold standard   
    It's a real shame that scumbag mugabe destroyed Zimbabwe. 
  11. Like
    RDHC reacted to HonestMoneyGoldSilver in Gold Monitoring Thread £ GBP only   
    WARNING: TL:DR
    Is the current gold rush sustainable?
    A better question:
    Are the sovereign debts of the US, EU, UK and China sustainable?
    Gold is essentially the inverse of debt - when debt accelerates, gold goes up
    We talk a lot about China buying gold but don't spend a lot of time fully investigating why. Is it BRICS? Is it a communist master plan of de-dollarisation? 
    No, the CCP and Chinese financial system are doing it out of necessity, same as the rest of us. China has printed more money than the western world combined. The Chinese are in a desperate scramble to swap their currency for something a bit more, you know, valuable, like oil (Saudis) and gold
    The local and regional banks in the Chinese system have been instructed to stack physical gold as a hedge against their property market and manufacturing sector. That's why there's a premium on physical gold in China - they don't just want it for political purposes, they need that gold for their survival
    Despite the insanity going on in the USA with a POTUS more interested in pronouns than profits, it will be China's currency that goes to the wall first. When you hear commentators talk about de-dollarisation and the end of American hegemony, don't forget the studies show the USD will be the LAST currency to fail. The USD might not survive a great deal longer than other currencies but the Euro, Yen, GBP and RMB will collapse before the USD collapses. 
    The concept of de-dollarisation is global, global financial collapse. Peter Schiff talks a lot about the collapse of the US but fails to provide a credible successor, other than the usual talk of currency revaluation vs metals (making gold and silver stupendously valuable like buying a mansion for a tube of silver Britannias)
    Many have posted here before that the ATH for gold when adjusted for inflation is well north of $3,000. We can hit $3,000/oz without breaking sweat. 
    If we use shadowstats or alternative metrics we can say the inflation-adjusted ATH is actually >$5,400:
    https://www.bullionvault.com/gold-news/gold_price_inflation_010620119
    We can go well beyond that with debt creation and inflation, with market expectations for debt to accelerate when the central banks cut rates. The debt burden is unsustainable. The only tool available to service that debt is to erode the real terms burden with inflation -> pump gold. It's not just sovereign debt but the robustness of corporate debt in general is starting to worry people. The commercial real estate debt component is a ticking time bomb
    Rate cuts will be global. Nobody will cut before the Fed cuts unless they specifically want to encourage inflation (like Japan) or have an economic crisis, but once our global overlord flicks the switch, everybody else will likely follow. 
    There is an argument for the BoE not cutting, allowing GBP to appreciate and using that as a tool to battle inflation. The penalty for that might be domestic recession and financial burden on mortgagees and borrowers, including the government itself. We'd also be living in cloud cuckoo land, identifying as a nation that can service its debts without inflation. The ugly truth is that inflation is essential to all sovereign governments due to the chronic corruption and mismanagement of previous regimes over several decades. 
    If gold kept up its recent price action (adding 8%/month) for a full year then gold would be close to that $5400 inflation-adjusted ATH
    Will gold keep up this pace? Theoretically it can but it would require some sort of additional catalyst IMHO
    I have no doubt gold will continue to go up and the price is justified, my worry is does everybody else know this? How much of the recent price action is speculative and can be reversed vs sticky long term physical stacking?
    If gold is the ultimate security, a stable store of real wealth, it's hard to justify rapid appreciations without expecting some sort of reversal. If a rapid appreciation (2.5x current price minimum) is justified then it tells us that the global financial system is close to the end times. That has all sorts of ramifications with the most likely one being a repeat of the 1930s (Great Depression - WWII)
    We will get a better indicator this summer. The current price action while fun isn't of great importance. If gold continues to go up this summer then either we go to the moon when the central banks cut or it's been a paper scam, buy the rumour sell the news. A more gradual appreciation of metals is preferable to manic price action that causes global instability. High volatility does not favour us, it favours traders and the super wealthy (volatility = profit)
    Gold might temporarily make you a king (Rafi Farber-style) but gold is not for getting wealthy, it is for preserving wealth
  12. Like
    RDHC reacted to Petra in Gold Monitoring Thread £ GBP only   
    I take it that you must be too young to remember any of the Cold War and the subsequent collapse of the Soviet Union and why it happened ?🤔🤔
  13. Like
    RDHC reacted to theman73 in Gold Monitoring Thread £ GBP only   
    My home back in Romania is 50km away from Ukraine
    Russians are not bulldogs (in movies maybe), they are just alcoholics, all of them.
  14. Like
    RDHC reacted to Upsidedown in Gold Monitoring Thread £ GBP only   
    Collapsed ukraine? Hard-core russian soldiers? NATO rainbow warriors?
    Someone's been watching russian state TV
  15. Like
    RDHC reacted to Upsidedown in Gold Monitoring Thread £ GBP only   
    Fail to see that as a Ukrainian failure when there is still a ukraine 2 years on.
    They have done well to lose the land they have, could have been much worse
  16. Like
    RDHC reacted to Happypanda88 in Gold Monitoring Thread £ GBP only   
    Some background information for those who still believe that there is gold in Fort Knox.

      1.   No audit has been performed at Fort Knox since 1950s. Some in the bullion industry have highlighted this and are highly sceptical that there is real stuff in the vault

      2.   Gold (400oz bars) shipped to Hong Kong, believed to have originated from the US were filled with tungsten. It was uncovered when assaying was performed and it broke the drill
     
    Rob Kirby, one of my favourite market analyst who sadly passed away wrote about item #2 some years ago.
    http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article14996.html
    ........ reports of 400 oz. “good delivery” bricks of gold found gutted and filled with tungsten within the confines of LBMA approved vaults in Hong Kong.
    Why Tungsten?
    If anyone were contemplating creating “fake” gold bars, tungsten [at roughly $10 per pound] would be the metal of choice since it has the exact same density as gold making a fake bar salted with tungsten indistinguishable from a solid gold bar by simply weighing it.
    Unfortunately, there are now more sordid details to report. When the news of tungsten “salted” gold bars in Hong Kong first surfaced, many people who I am acquainted with automatically assumed that these bars were manufactured in China – because China is generally viewed as “the knock-off capital of the world”. 
    Here’s what I now understand really happened:
    The amount of “salted tungsten” gold bars in question was allegedly between 5,600 and 5,700 – 400 oz – good delivery bars [roughly 60 metric tonnes].  This was apparently all highly orchestrated by an extremely well financed criminal operation. Within mere hours of this scam being identified – Chinese officials had many of the perpetrators in custody.
    And here’s what the Chinese allegedly uncovered:
    Roughly 15 years ago – during the Clinton Administration [think Robert Rubin, Sir Alan Greenspan and Lawrence Summers] – between 1.3 and 1.5 million 400 oz tungsten blanks were allegedly manufactured by a very high-end, sophisticated refiner in the USA [more than 16 Thousand metric tonnes].  Subsequently, 640,000 of these tungsten blanks received their gold plating and WERE shipped to Ft. Knox and remain there to this day.  I know folks who have copies of the original shipping docs with dates and exact weights of “tungsten” bars shipped to Ft. Knox.
  17. Super Like
    RDHC got a reaction from Arne in 2017 one ounce gold Red Dragon of Wales   
    Apparent marks and flecks are mostly a trick of the light, so far as my old eyes with 2x magnification can make out.

  18. Like
    RDHC got a reaction from AL84 in 2017 one ounce gold Red Dragon of Wales   
  19. Like
    RDHC got a reaction from ZEE123 in 2017 one ounce gold Red Dragon of Wales   
  20. Like
    RDHC got a reaction from Nowhereman in 2017 one ounce gold Red Dragon of Wales   
  21. Like
    RDHC got a reaction from KRO in 2017 one ounce gold Red Dragon of Wales   
  22. Like
    RDHC got a reaction from Chrisplym in 2017 one ounce gold Red Dragon of Wales   
  23. Like
    RDHC reacted to Bratnia in Gold Monitoring Thread £ GBP only   
    If not one, it would be another. States are just the biggest/strongest gangs in town, each still tends to profit from vices such as drugs (alcohol/cigarette taxes), gambling (horse racing/sports betting taxes) etc., and have their heavies (police/army) to impose their will and defend their patch. Depending upon your preferences there's always the option to move to be under another gang culture, some for instance like to throw certain groups of people off building roof tops etc.
  24. Like
    RDHC got a reaction from JamesH in 2017 one ounce gold Red Dragon of Wales   
    Excellent bullion condition Queens Beast. Dealers sell this - if they have one in stock at all - from £2300 upwards. I can offer mine at £1895 incl. RMSD, but only for a short time, otherwise it goes to Atkinsons (probably). If interested, please PM me and do not reply here. Photos now shown below. 
    Thank you for reading this.
  25. Like
    RDHC got a reaction from Brit2023 in 2017 one ounce gold Red Dragon of Wales   
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