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HighlandTiger

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Reputation Activity

  1. Haha
    HighlandTiger reacted to Paul in Silver Monitoring Thread £ (GBP) only.   
    New Ratio
    The Toilet Rolls to Silver Ratio  
     
  2. Haha
    HighlandTiger reacted to Martlet in Silver Monitoring Thread £ (GBP) only.   
    Turns out people seek pasta and bog roll before silver.  Some re-evaluation is going to be needed. 
  3. Sad
    HighlandTiger got a reaction from Martlet in Silver Monitoring Thread £ (GBP) only.   
    Seeing as silver is supposed to be a safe haven when the terrible hits the fan. Then why has it dropped like a stone during the biggest viral epidemic in nearly a century.
    Beginning to think the silver "experts" have been conning us all these years.
    If silver isn't going to go to £50 an oz during this crises, I doubt if ever will. 
     
  4. Haha
    HighlandTiger got a reaction from richatthecroft in let's talk Football   
    I'd have to emigrate to the moon, but I expect you'd still hear that nasal whining, "6 times, 19 times, never walk alone" bollox up there as well 😨
  5. Like
    HighlandTiger got a reaction from goldking in Gold Confiscation UK ?   
    Anyone worrying about the government stealing their gold need their heads examined. 
    The government don't need to worry about things like that.
    In a few years time the daft millennials will give over all their rights and embrace a cashless society where the government can take anything it wants with the press of a computer key. And they can't moan because they were the ones that let it happen. 
  6. Like
    HighlandTiger got a reaction from AlL in Cheap Gold Full and Half Sovereigns, including Shields   
    As usual I'm selling when the price is low, (never going to be a millionaire at this rate), but great for you lot
    I have for sale the following: (to prevent any confusion, all sold as bog standard bullion grade, but as usual the majority of them are much better than that). First come, first served, and I reserve the right to increase the price should the gold price in GBP rocket because Corbyn has somehow got into Downing Street. 
    Note the current price for a half shield Sovereign at Hatton Garden Metals is £200
    d?? = die number, 
    Shipping, £3.00 recorded for the brave people, £7.50 fully insured special delivery for everyone else. Payment via Paypal gift/friends etc, or by bank transfer. Haggling is allowed. 
    Sovereign 1/2 1864 (L) Shield d19 - £160 SOLD 
    Sovereign 1/2 1876 (L) Shield d80 - £160 SOLD 
    Sovereign 1/2 1878 (L) Shield d52 - £160 SOLD 
    Sovereign 1/2 1883 (L) Shield - £160 SOLD 
    Sovereign 1/2 1884 (L) Shield (scratched and priced accordingly) - £145  SOLD 
    Sovereign 1/2 1892 (L) Shield - £160 SOLD 
    Sovereign 1/2 1904 (L) - £135 SOLD
    Sovereign 1/2 1905 (L) - £135
    Sovereign 1/2 1911 (L) - £135 SOLD
    Sovereign 1/2 1913 (L) - £135
    Sovereign 1/2 1982 (L) - £135 SOLD
    Sovereign 1/2 1982 (L) - £135 SOLD 
    Sovereign 1/2 2019 (L) - £135 SOLD 
    Sovereign 1/2 2012 (L) G&D - £140 SOLD 
    Sovereign 1872 (L) Shield d37 - £300 SOLD 
    Sovereign 1877 (S) Shield - £300 SOLD 
    Sovereign 1979 (IOM) - £280

     
     
     
     

  7. Like
    HighlandTiger reacted to Cornishfarmer in UK General Election 2019   
    As someone that could never vote labour, I’m wondering why everyone isn’t going to vote for them.     Anyone that goes to uni will have to, any waspi women will have to.     Anyone that wants to work a 32 hour week (2days on the farm) would have to.    
    but a lot will put the country first and not vote for them
    as I’ve said before Nicola stergion really cocked up the last election and banged on about independence and lost enough seats that would have made the difference in Westminster.
    and this time it’s jo Swinson cocking it up with staying in Europe without another referendum.     Down here that opposition to democracy has made a big difference and I think will cost the Lib Dem’s 20 seats they may have had
  8. Haha
    HighlandTiger got a reaction from motorbikez in UK General Election 2019   
    I can't.....................I'll get banned  LOL
     
    Another point to ponder, Corbyn wants to borrow £50billion + to pay the WASPI women, to pay around £30-£40K to each woman. Guess who is one of those women, none other than his old pillion passenger flame.  I thought only the tories were allowed to help out their "mates"
  9. Like
    HighlandTiger got a reaction from jultorsk in UK General Election 2019   
    Corbyn refused to apologise for the anti-semitism in his party.
    Why am I not surprised, everyone with half a brain know he's a lying racist terrorist loving commie scum bag. 
     
    On a side note, I always love it when the left try to bang on about Boris's love life, as though it actually means anything. All you need to do to shut them down is mention that Corbyn has been married three times, and had an extra marital affair with Diane Abbot of all people.   
  10. Like
    HighlandTiger got a reaction from robman60 in UK General Election 2019   
    So how accurate are the polls?
    Let’s be practical and have a look at the polls in the week before the 2017 general election and the actual result. Out of the 16 polls, the averages were as follows
    Con Polls = 42.9% Actual Result = 43.5% Diff = -0.6%
    Lab Polls = 36.6% Actual Result = 41.0% Diff = -4.4%
    Lib Dem Polls = 7.7% Actual Result = 7.6% Diff = -0.1%
    UKIP Polls = 4.4% Actual Result = 1.9% Diff = +2.5%   
    SNP Polls = 4.1% Actual Result = 3.1% Diff = +1.0%
    Green Polls = 2.1% Actual Result = 1.7% Diff = +0.4%
    Others Polls = 1.9% Actual Result 1.2% Diff = +0.9%
    So with a margin of error of about 3% then the polls were fairly accurate. The stand out data was that Labour support was underestimated, and the SNP, UKIP and “Others” support was over estimated. All other parties were almost spot on by the pollsters.
    So why the anomalies, well Scotland does have some of the answers. Last election there was a very big tactical voting campaign by unionists to get rid of the SNP. Little heard of in the rest of the UK, but huge on social media north of the border. The SNP were predicting they were going to win every seat, and a lot of SNP supporters didn’t bother turning out. Unionists of all allegiances were voting for the person who had the best chance of chucking out the SNP. Tories were voting labour and vice versa. The SNP lost 19 of their 56 seats and held onto about 4 more by only a few hundred votes. This would have boosted the overall UK wide labour and tory vote by a few percentage points.
    The UKIP vote collapsed as people thought that Brexit was won and went back to their normal parties. Leaving only a few percent of extreme right wingers with UKIP.
    So what are we to make of the current polls, are they so out of touch with reality. I say no.
    Let’s look at the state of parties with Brexit. 52% of the population voted for Brexit. It’s still about 50-50 in the UK for and against, give or take a percentage point either way.
    With the Tories and the Brexit Party being the only parties who want to complete Brexit, the chances of their combined support going over 50% is low, but it also isn’t going to drop much either. Tory remainers will still vote tory, or at a push Lib Dems, they will never vote for the far left policies of Corbyn’s labour
    Labour in 2017 got 41% in the GE, now they are polling about 10% less. So why is that? Labour’s Brexit policy is a mess, they are neither for, nor against, they want another referendum and campaign against the deal they will secure from the EU. Your average man in the street can’t get his head around that conundrum. When you realise that 30% of labour voters voted leave, then you can see why these labour leave voters are voting, (for probably one election only), for the Brexit party (where the party is standing) or holding their nose and voting Tory. They want Brexit done. They want all this to be finished, not carried on indefinitely. This accounts for the current low polling of the Labour party.
    Now the only fly in the ointment is tactical voting, which as I said worked extremely well in Scotland in 2017. Now I know a lot of Labour supporters here are keeping their fingers crossed that this helps labour, relying on the youth university vote. But there is a dilemma here. Due to the majority of students coming from more affluent areas, (not urban areas) they may not be able to make much of an impact. Unless of course they break the law and vote in two places. If they vote tactically at home, where there is probably a Tory MP, their numbers may not be enough, (especially with the Brexit party dropping out), and by not voting in their Uni town, it may allow the Tories to return (see Canterbury). It’s not straight forward. But you also have to remember that tactical voting is happening on the Brexit side, (there are social media campaigns appearing in leavers inboxes on a daily basis), and we are also seeing in places like Grimsby where this is helpful to the Tories. So I do think that the tactical voting will sort of cancel itself out between the parties.
    Going back to the polls, the Tory vote, which is predominately Brexit inspired will not fall much if at all, no matter what Boris does or says. In their minds it’s Brexit at all costs. They don’t believe project doom. So where are Labour going to pick up votes from? Maybe one percent from Scotland, where tactical voting does make a difference, (every other party against the SNP - Tactical voting is more complicated in the rest of the UK, because there are more than one party on each side to vote for.)  But that won’t win an election. No, the only place Labour can pick up votes from is the Lib Dems, and they need to be whittling down their support, but that is going to be dangerous. Go in too hard, and you end up with a male dominated Labour party attacking a female Lib Dem Leader. Which with the attacks on Ruth Smeeth, would not look good, and would be turned to a Lib Dem and Tory advantage. But Labour also needs Lib Dem support to take seats off Tories, and if the Lib Dems drop too much, they will fail in this endeavour. So Labour is stuck between a rock and a hard place.
    So do I think the polls are accurate, yeah they are not far off.
    Will the Tories get a majority, yeah they probably will.
    Will the sky fall in when Brexit is done. Probably not, life will go on. If Brexit is a success, everyone will breathe a sigh of relief, and enjoy the boom times. If it’s a disaster, then in 5 years time, (or maybe less), there will be another election and Labour will get a chance to prove they can improve an economy instead of crashing it as a Labour government often, but not always, does.
    Whatever happens it’ll be interesting.
  11. Thanks
    HighlandTiger got a reaction from Pipers in UK General Election 2019   
    I think you are right in the most part, but if Corbyn gets into number 10, there will be a run on sterling. So if Boris wins the gold price drops and you back up the truck, and if Corbyn gets in, it's sell, sell, sell, after it hits record highs. 
  12. Like
    HighlandTiger got a reaction from RichmondStacker in UK General Election 2019   
    So how accurate are the polls?
    Let’s be practical and have a look at the polls in the week before the 2017 general election and the actual result. Out of the 16 polls, the averages were as follows
    Con Polls = 42.9% Actual Result = 43.5% Diff = -0.6%
    Lab Polls = 36.6% Actual Result = 41.0% Diff = -4.4%
    Lib Dem Polls = 7.7% Actual Result = 7.6% Diff = -0.1%
    UKIP Polls = 4.4% Actual Result = 1.9% Diff = +2.5%   
    SNP Polls = 4.1% Actual Result = 3.1% Diff = +1.0%
    Green Polls = 2.1% Actual Result = 1.7% Diff = +0.4%
    Others Polls = 1.9% Actual Result 1.2% Diff = +0.9%
    So with a margin of error of about 3% then the polls were fairly accurate. The stand out data was that Labour support was underestimated, and the SNP, UKIP and “Others” support was over estimated. All other parties were almost spot on by the pollsters.
    So why the anomalies, well Scotland does have some of the answers. Last election there was a very big tactical voting campaign by unionists to get rid of the SNP. Little heard of in the rest of the UK, but huge on social media north of the border. The SNP were predicting they were going to win every seat, and a lot of SNP supporters didn’t bother turning out. Unionists of all allegiances were voting for the person who had the best chance of chucking out the SNP. Tories were voting labour and vice versa. The SNP lost 19 of their 56 seats and held onto about 4 more by only a few hundred votes. This would have boosted the overall UK wide labour and tory vote by a few percentage points.
    The UKIP vote collapsed as people thought that Brexit was won and went back to their normal parties. Leaving only a few percent of extreme right wingers with UKIP.
    So what are we to make of the current polls, are they so out of touch with reality. I say no.
    Let’s look at the state of parties with Brexit. 52% of the population voted for Brexit. It’s still about 50-50 in the UK for and against, give or take a percentage point either way.
    With the Tories and the Brexit Party being the only parties who want to complete Brexit, the chances of their combined support going over 50% is low, but it also isn’t going to drop much either. Tory remainers will still vote tory, or at a push Lib Dems, they will never vote for the far left policies of Corbyn’s labour
    Labour in 2017 got 41% in the GE, now they are polling about 10% less. So why is that? Labour’s Brexit policy is a mess, they are neither for, nor against, they want another referendum and campaign against the deal they will secure from the EU. Your average man in the street can’t get his head around that conundrum. When you realise that 30% of labour voters voted leave, then you can see why these labour leave voters are voting, (for probably one election only), for the Brexit party (where the party is standing) or holding their nose and voting Tory. They want Brexit done. They want all this to be finished, not carried on indefinitely. This accounts for the current low polling of the Labour party.
    Now the only fly in the ointment is tactical voting, which as I said worked extremely well in Scotland in 2017. Now I know a lot of Labour supporters here are keeping their fingers crossed that this helps labour, relying on the youth university vote. But there is a dilemma here. Due to the majority of students coming from more affluent areas, (not urban areas) they may not be able to make much of an impact. Unless of course they break the law and vote in two places. If they vote tactically at home, where there is probably a Tory MP, their numbers may not be enough, (especially with the Brexit party dropping out), and by not voting in their Uni town, it may allow the Tories to return (see Canterbury). It’s not straight forward. But you also have to remember that tactical voting is happening on the Brexit side, (there are social media campaigns appearing in leavers inboxes on a daily basis), and we are also seeing in places like Grimsby where this is helpful to the Tories. So I do think that the tactical voting will sort of cancel itself out between the parties.
    Going back to the polls, the Tory vote, which is predominately Brexit inspired will not fall much if at all, no matter what Boris does or says. In their minds it’s Brexit at all costs. They don’t believe project doom. So where are Labour going to pick up votes from? Maybe one percent from Scotland, where tactical voting does make a difference, (every other party against the SNP - Tactical voting is more complicated in the rest of the UK, because there are more than one party on each side to vote for.)  But that won’t win an election. No, the only place Labour can pick up votes from is the Lib Dems, and they need to be whittling down their support, but that is going to be dangerous. Go in too hard, and you end up with a male dominated Labour party attacking a female Lib Dem Leader. Which with the attacks on Ruth Smeeth, would not look good, and would be turned to a Lib Dem and Tory advantage. But Labour also needs Lib Dem support to take seats off Tories, and if the Lib Dems drop too much, they will fail in this endeavour. So Labour is stuck between a rock and a hard place.
    So do I think the polls are accurate, yeah they are not far off.
    Will the Tories get a majority, yeah they probably will.
    Will the sky fall in when Brexit is done. Probably not, life will go on. If Brexit is a success, everyone will breathe a sigh of relief, and enjoy the boom times. If it’s a disaster, then in 5 years time, (or maybe less), there will be another election and Labour will get a chance to prove they can improve an economy instead of crashing it as a Labour government often, but not always, does.
    Whatever happens it’ll be interesting.
  13. Like
    HighlandTiger got a reaction from KDave in UK General Election 2019   
    So how accurate are the polls?
    Let’s be practical and have a look at the polls in the week before the 2017 general election and the actual result. Out of the 16 polls, the averages were as follows
    Con Polls = 42.9% Actual Result = 43.5% Diff = -0.6%
    Lab Polls = 36.6% Actual Result = 41.0% Diff = -4.4%
    Lib Dem Polls = 7.7% Actual Result = 7.6% Diff = -0.1%
    UKIP Polls = 4.4% Actual Result = 1.9% Diff = +2.5%   
    SNP Polls = 4.1% Actual Result = 3.1% Diff = +1.0%
    Green Polls = 2.1% Actual Result = 1.7% Diff = +0.4%
    Others Polls = 1.9% Actual Result 1.2% Diff = +0.9%
    So with a margin of error of about 3% then the polls were fairly accurate. The stand out data was that Labour support was underestimated, and the SNP, UKIP and “Others” support was over estimated. All other parties were almost spot on by the pollsters.
    So why the anomalies, well Scotland does have some of the answers. Last election there was a very big tactical voting campaign by unionists to get rid of the SNP. Little heard of in the rest of the UK, but huge on social media north of the border. The SNP were predicting they were going to win every seat, and a lot of SNP supporters didn’t bother turning out. Unionists of all allegiances were voting for the person who had the best chance of chucking out the SNP. Tories were voting labour and vice versa. The SNP lost 19 of their 56 seats and held onto about 4 more by only a few hundred votes. This would have boosted the overall UK wide labour and tory vote by a few percentage points.
    The UKIP vote collapsed as people thought that Brexit was won and went back to their normal parties. Leaving only a few percent of extreme right wingers with UKIP.
    So what are we to make of the current polls, are they so out of touch with reality. I say no.
    Let’s look at the state of parties with Brexit. 52% of the population voted for Brexit. It’s still about 50-50 in the UK for and against, give or take a percentage point either way.
    With the Tories and the Brexit Party being the only parties who want to complete Brexit, the chances of their combined support going over 50% is low, but it also isn’t going to drop much either. Tory remainers will still vote tory, or at a push Lib Dems, they will never vote for the far left policies of Corbyn’s labour
    Labour in 2017 got 41% in the GE, now they are polling about 10% less. So why is that? Labour’s Brexit policy is a mess, they are neither for, nor against, they want another referendum and campaign against the deal they will secure from the EU. Your average man in the street can’t get his head around that conundrum. When you realise that 30% of labour voters voted leave, then you can see why these labour leave voters are voting, (for probably one election only), for the Brexit party (where the party is standing) or holding their nose and voting Tory. They want Brexit done. They want all this to be finished, not carried on indefinitely. This accounts for the current low polling of the Labour party.
    Now the only fly in the ointment is tactical voting, which as I said worked extremely well in Scotland in 2017. Now I know a lot of Labour supporters here are keeping their fingers crossed that this helps labour, relying on the youth university vote. But there is a dilemma here. Due to the majority of students coming from more affluent areas, (not urban areas) they may not be able to make much of an impact. Unless of course they break the law and vote in two places. If they vote tactically at home, where there is probably a Tory MP, their numbers may not be enough, (especially with the Brexit party dropping out), and by not voting in their Uni town, it may allow the Tories to return (see Canterbury). It’s not straight forward. But you also have to remember that tactical voting is happening on the Brexit side, (there are social media campaigns appearing in leavers inboxes on a daily basis), and we are also seeing in places like Grimsby where this is helpful to the Tories. So I do think that the tactical voting will sort of cancel itself out between the parties.
    Going back to the polls, the Tory vote, which is predominately Brexit inspired will not fall much if at all, no matter what Boris does or says. In their minds it’s Brexit at all costs. They don’t believe project doom. So where are Labour going to pick up votes from? Maybe one percent from Scotland, where tactical voting does make a difference, (every other party against the SNP - Tactical voting is more complicated in the rest of the UK, because there are more than one party on each side to vote for.)  But that won’t win an election. No, the only place Labour can pick up votes from is the Lib Dems, and they need to be whittling down their support, but that is going to be dangerous. Go in too hard, and you end up with a male dominated Labour party attacking a female Lib Dem Leader. Which with the attacks on Ruth Smeeth, would not look good, and would be turned to a Lib Dem and Tory advantage. But Labour also needs Lib Dem support to take seats off Tories, and if the Lib Dems drop too much, they will fail in this endeavour. So Labour is stuck between a rock and a hard place.
    So do I think the polls are accurate, yeah they are not far off.
    Will the Tories get a majority, yeah they probably will.
    Will the sky fall in when Brexit is done. Probably not, life will go on. If Brexit is a success, everyone will breathe a sigh of relief, and enjoy the boom times. If it’s a disaster, then in 5 years time, (or maybe less), there will be another election and Labour will get a chance to prove they can improve an economy instead of crashing it as a Labour government often, but not always, does.
    Whatever happens it’ll be interesting.
  14. Thanks
    HighlandTiger got a reaction from KDave in UK General Election 2019   
    If Boris gets in with a healthy majority, that "deal" will change dramatically and be more in line with a hard brexit. That's what I have been told from a member of his team personally.  
  15. Like
    HighlandTiger got a reaction from lubi29 in UK General Election 2019   
    So how accurate are the polls?
    Let’s be practical and have a look at the polls in the week before the 2017 general election and the actual result. Out of the 16 polls, the averages were as follows
    Con Polls = 42.9% Actual Result = 43.5% Diff = -0.6%
    Lab Polls = 36.6% Actual Result = 41.0% Diff = -4.4%
    Lib Dem Polls = 7.7% Actual Result = 7.6% Diff = -0.1%
    UKIP Polls = 4.4% Actual Result = 1.9% Diff = +2.5%   
    SNP Polls = 4.1% Actual Result = 3.1% Diff = +1.0%
    Green Polls = 2.1% Actual Result = 1.7% Diff = +0.4%
    Others Polls = 1.9% Actual Result 1.2% Diff = +0.9%
    So with a margin of error of about 3% then the polls were fairly accurate. The stand out data was that Labour support was underestimated, and the SNP, UKIP and “Others” support was over estimated. All other parties were almost spot on by the pollsters.
    So why the anomalies, well Scotland does have some of the answers. Last election there was a very big tactical voting campaign by unionists to get rid of the SNP. Little heard of in the rest of the UK, but huge on social media north of the border. The SNP were predicting they were going to win every seat, and a lot of SNP supporters didn’t bother turning out. Unionists of all allegiances were voting for the person who had the best chance of chucking out the SNP. Tories were voting labour and vice versa. The SNP lost 19 of their 56 seats and held onto about 4 more by only a few hundred votes. This would have boosted the overall UK wide labour and tory vote by a few percentage points.
    The UKIP vote collapsed as people thought that Brexit was won and went back to their normal parties. Leaving only a few percent of extreme right wingers with UKIP.
    So what are we to make of the current polls, are they so out of touch with reality. I say no.
    Let’s look at the state of parties with Brexit. 52% of the population voted for Brexit. It’s still about 50-50 in the UK for and against, give or take a percentage point either way.
    With the Tories and the Brexit Party being the only parties who want to complete Brexit, the chances of their combined support going over 50% is low, but it also isn’t going to drop much either. Tory remainers will still vote tory, or at a push Lib Dems, they will never vote for the far left policies of Corbyn’s labour
    Labour in 2017 got 41% in the GE, now they are polling about 10% less. So why is that? Labour’s Brexit policy is a mess, they are neither for, nor against, they want another referendum and campaign against the deal they will secure from the EU. Your average man in the street can’t get his head around that conundrum. When you realise that 30% of labour voters voted leave, then you can see why these labour leave voters are voting, (for probably one election only), for the Brexit party (where the party is standing) or holding their nose and voting Tory. They want Brexit done. They want all this to be finished, not carried on indefinitely. This accounts for the current low polling of the Labour party.
    Now the only fly in the ointment is tactical voting, which as I said worked extremely well in Scotland in 2017. Now I know a lot of Labour supporters here are keeping their fingers crossed that this helps labour, relying on the youth university vote. But there is a dilemma here. Due to the majority of students coming from more affluent areas, (not urban areas) they may not be able to make much of an impact. Unless of course they break the law and vote in two places. If they vote tactically at home, where there is probably a Tory MP, their numbers may not be enough, (especially with the Brexit party dropping out), and by not voting in their Uni town, it may allow the Tories to return (see Canterbury). It’s not straight forward. But you also have to remember that tactical voting is happening on the Brexit side, (there are social media campaigns appearing in leavers inboxes on a daily basis), and we are also seeing in places like Grimsby where this is helpful to the Tories. So I do think that the tactical voting will sort of cancel itself out between the parties.
    Going back to the polls, the Tory vote, which is predominately Brexit inspired will not fall much if at all, no matter what Boris does or says. In their minds it’s Brexit at all costs. They don’t believe project doom. So where are Labour going to pick up votes from? Maybe one percent from Scotland, where tactical voting does make a difference, (every other party against the SNP - Tactical voting is more complicated in the rest of the UK, because there are more than one party on each side to vote for.)  But that won’t win an election. No, the only place Labour can pick up votes from is the Lib Dems, and they need to be whittling down their support, but that is going to be dangerous. Go in too hard, and you end up with a male dominated Labour party attacking a female Lib Dem Leader. Which with the attacks on Ruth Smeeth, would not look good, and would be turned to a Lib Dem and Tory advantage. But Labour also needs Lib Dem support to take seats off Tories, and if the Lib Dems drop too much, they will fail in this endeavour. So Labour is stuck between a rock and a hard place.
    So do I think the polls are accurate, yeah they are not far off.
    Will the Tories get a majority, yeah they probably will.
    Will the sky fall in when Brexit is done. Probably not, life will go on. If Brexit is a success, everyone will breathe a sigh of relief, and enjoy the boom times. If it’s a disaster, then in 5 years time, (or maybe less), there will be another election and Labour will get a chance to prove they can improve an economy instead of crashing it as a Labour government often, but not always, does.
    Whatever happens it’ll be interesting.
  16. Like
    HighlandTiger got a reaction from SILVERFINGER in UK General Election 2019   
    If Boris gets in with a healthy majority, that "deal" will change dramatically and be more in line with a hard brexit. That's what I have been told from a member of his team personally.  
  17. Like
    HighlandTiger got a reaction from SILVERFINGER in UK General Election 2019   
    So how accurate are the polls?
    Let’s be practical and have a look at the polls in the week before the 2017 general election and the actual result. Out of the 16 polls, the averages were as follows
    Con Polls = 42.9% Actual Result = 43.5% Diff = -0.6%
    Lab Polls = 36.6% Actual Result = 41.0% Diff = -4.4%
    Lib Dem Polls = 7.7% Actual Result = 7.6% Diff = -0.1%
    UKIP Polls = 4.4% Actual Result = 1.9% Diff = +2.5%   
    SNP Polls = 4.1% Actual Result = 3.1% Diff = +1.0%
    Green Polls = 2.1% Actual Result = 1.7% Diff = +0.4%
    Others Polls = 1.9% Actual Result 1.2% Diff = +0.9%
    So with a margin of error of about 3% then the polls were fairly accurate. The stand out data was that Labour support was underestimated, and the SNP, UKIP and “Others” support was over estimated. All other parties were almost spot on by the pollsters.
    So why the anomalies, well Scotland does have some of the answers. Last election there was a very big tactical voting campaign by unionists to get rid of the SNP. Little heard of in the rest of the UK, but huge on social media north of the border. The SNP were predicting they were going to win every seat, and a lot of SNP supporters didn’t bother turning out. Unionists of all allegiances were voting for the person who had the best chance of chucking out the SNP. Tories were voting labour and vice versa. The SNP lost 19 of their 56 seats and held onto about 4 more by only a few hundred votes. This would have boosted the overall UK wide labour and tory vote by a few percentage points.
    The UKIP vote collapsed as people thought that Brexit was won and went back to their normal parties. Leaving only a few percent of extreme right wingers with UKIP.
    So what are we to make of the current polls, are they so out of touch with reality. I say no.
    Let’s look at the state of parties with Brexit. 52% of the population voted for Brexit. It’s still about 50-50 in the UK for and against, give or take a percentage point either way.
    With the Tories and the Brexit Party being the only parties who want to complete Brexit, the chances of their combined support going over 50% is low, but it also isn’t going to drop much either. Tory remainers will still vote tory, or at a push Lib Dems, they will never vote for the far left policies of Corbyn’s labour
    Labour in 2017 got 41% in the GE, now they are polling about 10% less. So why is that? Labour’s Brexit policy is a mess, they are neither for, nor against, they want another referendum and campaign against the deal they will secure from the EU. Your average man in the street can’t get his head around that conundrum. When you realise that 30% of labour voters voted leave, then you can see why these labour leave voters are voting, (for probably one election only), for the Brexit party (where the party is standing) or holding their nose and voting Tory. They want Brexit done. They want all this to be finished, not carried on indefinitely. This accounts for the current low polling of the Labour party.
    Now the only fly in the ointment is tactical voting, which as I said worked extremely well in Scotland in 2017. Now I know a lot of Labour supporters here are keeping their fingers crossed that this helps labour, relying on the youth university vote. But there is a dilemma here. Due to the majority of students coming from more affluent areas, (not urban areas) they may not be able to make much of an impact. Unless of course they break the law and vote in two places. If they vote tactically at home, where there is probably a Tory MP, their numbers may not be enough, (especially with the Brexit party dropping out), and by not voting in their Uni town, it may allow the Tories to return (see Canterbury). It’s not straight forward. But you also have to remember that tactical voting is happening on the Brexit side, (there are social media campaigns appearing in leavers inboxes on a daily basis), and we are also seeing in places like Grimsby where this is helpful to the Tories. So I do think that the tactical voting will sort of cancel itself out between the parties.
    Going back to the polls, the Tory vote, which is predominately Brexit inspired will not fall much if at all, no matter what Boris does or says. In their minds it’s Brexit at all costs. They don’t believe project doom. So where are Labour going to pick up votes from? Maybe one percent from Scotland, where tactical voting does make a difference, (every other party against the SNP - Tactical voting is more complicated in the rest of the UK, because there are more than one party on each side to vote for.)  But that won’t win an election. No, the only place Labour can pick up votes from is the Lib Dems, and they need to be whittling down their support, but that is going to be dangerous. Go in too hard, and you end up with a male dominated Labour party attacking a female Lib Dem Leader. Which with the attacks on Ruth Smeeth, would not look good, and would be turned to a Lib Dem and Tory advantage. But Labour also needs Lib Dem support to take seats off Tories, and if the Lib Dems drop too much, they will fail in this endeavour. So Labour is stuck between a rock and a hard place.
    So do I think the polls are accurate, yeah they are not far off.
    Will the Tories get a majority, yeah they probably will.
    Will the sky fall in when Brexit is done. Probably not, life will go on. If Brexit is a success, everyone will breathe a sigh of relief, and enjoy the boom times. If it’s a disaster, then in 5 years time, (or maybe less), there will be another election and Labour will get a chance to prove they can improve an economy instead of crashing it as a Labour government often, but not always, does.
    Whatever happens it’ll be interesting.
  18. Like
    HighlandTiger got a reaction from KitboyE17 in Where to buy PM?   
    If you are just after the cheapest gold and silver, then it has to be this forum. Every week people are selling items much cheaper than any business out there, (as I am at this very moment). If you are after specific items then Kitboy has  indicated the best UK companies. 
  19. Thanks
    HighlandTiger got a reaction from trp in Cheap Gold Full and Half Sovereigns, including Shields   
    pm'd
  20. Thanks
    HighlandTiger reacted to woody65 in Cheap Gold Full and Half Sovereigns, including Shields   
    2019 half and 2012 half please?
  21. Like
    HighlandTiger got a reaction from MickD in Cheap Gold Full and Half Sovereigns, including Shields   
    Picture of scratch on 1884 coin . Shield side is fine
     

  22. Like
    HighlandTiger got a reaction from ilovesilverireallydo in Cheap Gold Full and Half Sovereigns, including Shields   
    As usual I'm selling when the price is low, (never going to be a millionaire at this rate), but great for you lot
    I have for sale the following: (to prevent any confusion, all sold as bog standard bullion grade, but as usual the majority of them are much better than that). First come, first served, and I reserve the right to increase the price should the gold price in GBP rocket because Corbyn has somehow got into Downing Street. 
    Note the current price for a half shield Sovereign at Hatton Garden Metals is £200
    d?? = die number, 
    Shipping, £3.00 recorded for the brave people, £7.50 fully insured special delivery for everyone else. Payment via Paypal gift/friends etc, or by bank transfer. Haggling is allowed. 
    Sovereign 1/2 1864 (L) Shield d19 - £160 SOLD 
    Sovereign 1/2 1876 (L) Shield d80 - £160 SOLD 
    Sovereign 1/2 1878 (L) Shield d52 - £160 SOLD 
    Sovereign 1/2 1883 (L) Shield - £160 SOLD 
    Sovereign 1/2 1884 (L) Shield (scratched and priced accordingly) - £145  SOLD 
    Sovereign 1/2 1892 (L) Shield - £160 SOLD 
    Sovereign 1/2 1904 (L) - £135 SOLD
    Sovereign 1/2 1905 (L) - £135
    Sovereign 1/2 1911 (L) - £135 SOLD
    Sovereign 1/2 1913 (L) - £135
    Sovereign 1/2 1982 (L) - £135 SOLD
    Sovereign 1/2 1982 (L) - £135 SOLD 
    Sovereign 1/2 2019 (L) - £135 SOLD 
    Sovereign 1/2 2012 (L) G&D - £140 SOLD 
    Sovereign 1872 (L) Shield d37 - £300 SOLD 
    Sovereign 1877 (S) Shield - £300 SOLD 
    Sovereign 1979 (IOM) - £280

     
     
     
     

  23. Like
    HighlandTiger got a reaction from 5huggy in Want to Buy GOld as An Investment   
    The simple answer to your question is that NONE of us know. 
    There is no guaranteed strategy for any investing, other than buy low, sell high.
    People may direct you to graphs with lots of lovely lines drawn on them, but the fact that the people who draw these lines are NOT billionaires, then that should be an indicator they haven't a clue either.
    You are asking the impossible I'm afraid
  24. Like
    HighlandTiger got a reaction from SILVERFINGER in UK General Election 2019   
    My thoughts proved, and fingers crossed...
    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/10326523/general-election-2019-emily-thornberry-labour-polls/
  25. Like
    HighlandTiger got a reaction from Pipers in UK General Election 2019   
    I think you'll be pleasently surprised just how many seats the Tories take from labour. There are only a few diehard labour seats that will stay labour forever, everything else is up for grabs and there are a lot of seats that only need a swing of a few percent is needed to turn blue.
    Labour will lose a ton of seats in London, some to libdems, the others to the conservatives. Corbyn is a liability, the jewish population will not vote for him, and because they often live in close proximity to each other, their votes can be the difference in many seats.
    Now if labour had a leader that was not a terrorist loving, anti-Semitic, Marxist moron, then the conservatives would struggle to beat labour. But all the time the Labour party is run by metropolitan sychophants, who believes that Corbyn can walk on water, he will continue to believe he has a chance. 
    My prediction... Tory majority by around 50 seats. 
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