GoldCore

It’s been an interesting week in the markets this week. Action in the Middle East has left much of the world appearing as though they are watching a tennis match with heads going back and forth to see what each side’s response will be. Sadly it appears as though this won’t be a case of ‘all talk and no action’. At the time of writing the US and EU look likely to be placing sanctions on Iran, in support of Israel. Meanwhile Western economies and central bankers are slowly coming to the realisation that things are in worse shape that they had appreciated. Jerome Powell has admitted that inflation is not yet under control and the Bundesbank has described Germany’s economy as ‘weak at its core.’ 

I interviewed Crag Hemke earlier this week. At a time when many gold investors are feeling increasingly vindicated it seemed apt timing to speak with someone who has been writing his markets blog (and discussing gold investment) for nearly fifteen years. As he says in the interview, he has been calling for gold to reach these prices for some time. And, he expects to see it take another step up, in the coming weeks. 

Those of you who are also interested in the miners, should be sure to listen to his own analysis on their performance. He has some strong thoughts on Newmont!

Buy Gold Coins

What a week it has been since our last newsletter. Gold has not let us down and remains firmly above $2, 300. Silver is also finally rolling its sleeves up and getting in on the action, yesterday it came close to a three-year high.

Today has been especially interesting with the ECB decision, following the higher-than-expected US inflation data yesterday. Treasury yields shot up to 2024 highs, meaning expectations for an ECB cut were significantly dulled. However, as we have mentioned in our earlier commentary - central bank decisions are not the only ones bearing responsibility for gold's performance. We also look at towards the Middle East where key intelligence stakeholders are concerned Iran is set to fire upon Israel in the coming days. This would bring the six-month conflict up several notches and would no doubt result in increased involvement from the West.

So with the ongoing state of flux both politically and economically we bring you three conversations that will at least bring some sense of order to your precious metal investment strategy.

In this video, we discuss the current market conditions and whether or not it is a good time to buy gold. With economic uncertainty looming and the price of gold fluctuating, many investors are wondering if now is the right time to add this precious metal to their portfolio. We analyze various factors such as inflation, interest rates, and global events to determine if gold is a safe investment option. Join us as we explore the intricacies of the gold market and provide valuable insights for potential investors.

Gold has continued its run up from $2,300 and shows little sign of abating. Yesterday Jan Skoyles looked at what was behind gold demand right now and today we took a technical perspective when I spoke Chris Vermuelen from TheTechnicalTraders.com.

In this very quick debrief we took a look at the present trends and future potential of the silver, gold, miners and oil market cycles. Utilizing technical tools such as Fibonacci extension and retracement, Chris delivers a thorough analysis foreseeing a possible surge in silver prices and sustained bullish trends in gold. Chris is very confident that we'll see $2,600 'plus change' in the very near future.

The conversation also addresses the broader influence of market cycles and economic indicators on commodity prices.

Right now, things are changing very quickly, across markets. So both Dave and Chris stress the importance of readiness for market volatility and the likelihood of substantial shifts in precious metals and energy stocks due to broader economic and geopolitical factors.

If you're wondering if now is the right time to buy gold or the right time to invest in silver then this is a great place to start. It will give you a great oversight of what is going on in markets right now, and give you the confidence to take the next step on your precious metals investment journey!

Dive into the fascinating world of gold bullion coins with our latest video on GoldCore TV!

In just 5 minutes, we’ll take you through the allure of these precious items, detailing their unique characteristics, gold content, and rich history. Whether you’re a seasoned collector or new to the world of gold investment, this guide has something for everyone.

Discover the various gold bullion coins available for purchase and learn what makes each one special. From the iconic American Eagle to the majestic Canadian Maple Leaf, we cover the top picks for investors and collectors alike. Don’t miss out on this golden opportunity to expand your knowledge and perhaps your collection.

Remember, investing in gold bullion coins is not just about owning a piece of precious metal; it’s about holding a piece of history in your hands. Join us on this journey and let’s explore the value and beauty of gold bullion coins together.

The Easter weekend is almost upon us. As you start to unwind and begin to enjoy the long weekend you might be pleased to note gold’s performance this week. At the time of writing gold has posted near double-digit gains during a busy day of US economic data releases. 

 This is an important day from a technical point of view, given it is the final day of trading this week, month and quarter. Gold’s performance comes despite data releases that indicate the US economy is faring better than expected. 

In times gone by one would have reasonably expected gold to falter at the merest hint of stronger-than-predicted data. But we are now seeing a sort of teenager-esque response from gold when it comes to events that one might have previously expected to see a reaction to. It seems to shrug it's shoulders as if to say ‘yeah? And?’. 

It goes to show that something we have long waited for is perhaps starting to come to light…physical and non-speculative demand for gold is beginning to bear a heavier weight on price action than it has previously. 

This has been coming for a while. After all, ETF outflows have been on a tear for the past nine months, but this has had little impact on the price of gold.

Much of this we can attribute to central bank buying especially by China. Conversations with our fellow LBMA members in recent days have confirmed our suspicions that physical gold is being snapped up by the big investors in the East. 

Of course, as I mentioned last week, we fully expect central bank demand for gold to continue, and grow. Given the decision by the EU last Thursday to propose the use of frozen Russian Central Bank assets to support Ukraine, this will have surely fired a spark amongst central bankers that they need to secure their assets in ways that cannot result in similar outcomes. 

Gold is the only answer. 

And why is it the only answer you might ask? Well let us explain. In this short 4 minute video We explain why gold has maintained its status over thousands of years, as the money of choice. We ask why, of all the metals that can be taken out of the ground, is gold the one that has prevailed as the ultimate currency. 

And just before I go, please note our Easter trading hours. We are closed tomorrow (Friday 29th March) and will reopen on Monday 1st April at 8am.

Have a very happy Easter
 

Gold broke through $2,200 late yesterday, peaking at $2,220 before moderating around $2,200. At the time of writing this is where it remains. Silver very nearly stole the limelight from gold, as it rocketed up to $25.63 a near 3% climb.  

The big economic event yesterday was the FOMC announcement, however gold did not react especially dramatically to the initial news that US rates would remain in a range of 5.25% - 5.50%. It was only after the reopen that it leapt up to $2,200, following Powell's press conference. 

Did it just take a press announcement about US interest rates for gold and silver to start climbing? No, but it was certainly the catalyst to a reaction that has long been taking effect. Gold has been performing very well of late. After all, it wasn't so long ago that we were remarking that it had broken through $2,100. This is because in the background there is plenty going on to support gold's rise. It doesn't take one interest rate announcement to allow gold to find strength. If anything, the yellow metal has become markedly less interested in interest rate announcements in the last year or so. 

One of the big supporters of the gold price in the last couple of years has been central bank demand. World Gold Council research shows many of the reasons for increasing gold reserves ultimately comes down to reducing geopolitical and currency risk. And there was some key news yesterday that is sure to have central banks even more wary about how and where they hold their reserves. 

Yesterday, the EU appeared to 'find a way' that would allow frozen Russian Central Bank assets to be used to buy arms for Ukraine - i.e. central bank assets which were frozen are now being repurposed to the benefit of other countries. Aside from where other countries sit on the Russia-Ukraine war, this is likely to sound serious alarm bells. Currently, the ECB prides itself on being a safe haven for other central banks looking to store funds. But now, a precedent is about to be set whereby it is seemingly okay to utilise assets from the central bank of another nation. This completely goes against the role of a safe haven.  

In short, we expect to see increased demand for gold by central banks and this may well have something to do with the climb in price yesterday. Either way, this will no doubt add even more support to the case to own gold. 

Despite gold's new headline-worthy price, you might still find there are some naysayers in your life who think this is an archaic investment and a waste of time. Or perhaps you're wondering if you should buy some more gold? If that's the case, then we implore you to watch nuggets of knowledge from legendary investor Jim Rogers in our “9 Jim Rogers Clips That Will Make You Want to Buy Gold”. 

As always, we love to hear your thoughts. Let us know what you think about the recent hike in gold and silver price, do you think it is sustainable? Do you agree with Jim Rogers's take on events to come?

As ever this is a wide-ranging chat with the financial and global markets expert. His insights into (and contacts within) the geopolitical sphere are fascinating. The conclusions he draws are concerning, but his advice (for gold investors) is reassuring. 

Whether you’re looking to learn more about the intentions of the BRICs, who will win in the Russia-Ukraine war or how to prepare for the next change in financial order, then this will be a fascinating conversation for you to listen to. 

Don’t forget to let us know what you thought about the interview. And, if there is anyone you would like us to speak to, email us!

Stay tuned, video coming soon.

This week we spoke to Rick Rule of Rule Investment Media. Rick shares his expert perspective on navigating economic uncertainty and investing in gold.

Discover why he chooses to allocate part of his portfolio to gold, not for short-term gains, but as insurance against systemic shocks and market uncertainty.

Hear him talk about the benefits of inflation, the attraction of the US dollar and its future as a reserve currency. Listen out for the sector he thinks investors should avoid, and his three lessons for investors.

As ever please let us know your thoughts and comments, we always love to read them. And if you have any questions for future guests, then send them our way.

Last week we spoke to Gary Savage of Smart Money Tracker where he discussed the current state of the market and provides insights into potential future movements.

He discusses various topics, including stock market trends, four-year cycle lows, precious metals like gold and silver, and the oil market.

Gary predicts significant moves in commodities, such as gold reaching $5000, and silver hitting $100 or even $250. He also anticipates oil prices potentially rising to $200.

The discussion delves into technical analysis, market cycles, and potential implications for inflation and investment strategies.

As ever please let us know your thoughts and comments, we always love to read them. And if you have any questions for future guests, then send them our way.

In 2023 gold demand was the highest on record at 4,899t. The increased desire to own gold should not be a surprise, after all gold has been shown to act as a portfolio preserver in times of economic, geopolitical and financial distress. And we are certainly in those times right now. 

But we also find ourselves in concerning, environmental times. It is incumbent upon us to consider the impact of our investments on the wider landscape. Gold has been around for millenia but continues to step up to the plate when it comes to meeting investors’ needs and concerns, both in terms of portfolio preservation and sustainable investing. 

Sustainability is taken very seriously by the gold industry, across the supply chain. The Responsible Gold Mining Principles address all the material ESG risks associated with gold mining. And further up the supply chain all LBMA accredited refiners have to follow the Responsible Gold Guidance to ensure that they have appropriate responsible sourcing procedures in place.

No bullion dealer worth their salt will be sourcing newly refined bars or coins that haven’t come from an LBMA accredited refiner or mint. So make sure you look out for that when buying gold bullion. It is worth noting however that ‘grandfathered gold’, the gold refined before 2012 that is held in bullion bank vaults, central bank vaults, exchanges, is not required to have a determination of origin.

 It takes very little energy to keep gold (it does not require certain storage conditions) or to trade it. It is not as if once traded it is consumed, instead it will always exist. For example, the American Eagle you bought last week might not be from newly mined gold. Instead it might be one of the first released in 1986 and it could contain gold from hundreds of years prior. 

Jim Rogers and his Survival Plan for the coming Debt Collapse

The fact that we are talking about a product that once mined will last thousands of years indicates that it is a sustainable investment. This is because gold is rarely destroyed and so all of the gold ever mined still exists today. And it exists in its original form – as gold – and so is still as investable and as practical as it was when it was originally mined. 

Gold has always been recycled, and in the modern age recycled gold is becoming increasingly important. Overall demand for gold  was so high in 2023 that recycled gold supply climbed by 9%. Over 25% of gold bought this year will have come from a recycled source, this is significant given it is over 90% less carbon intensive than sourcing mined gold. 

It is rare in this day and age to point to a thousand year old asset that takes such little energy to preserve but instead does all the preserving for you. 

This article was published this week in Phoenix Magazine’s Sustainable Investing feature, which GoldCore was proud to sponsor.

Last week we released our much-anticipated interview with Jim Rogers. The response has been absolutely brilliant. Interviews with Jim are always thought-provoking but I think the success of this interview comes from the fact that last week saw Jim really take a stern approach to warning us about the future of the global economy.

In case you missed it, I thought you might appreciate some highlights from the interview. But first, here are some of the comments we’ve received so far:

“Jim is my favorite commentator on the history of economies and the likely current headwinds”

“Always a pleasure to listen to the simple  but sophisticated wisdom of Jim Rogers; a humble gentleman and a truly interesting man.”

…And here are just a few of the countless highlights from our 20 minute interview

Jim on the Coming Debt Collapse

“Since 2009, debt everywhere has skyrocketed. There’s debt everywhere now. Even China has a lot of debt now. China didn’t have any debt 25 years ago. Now everybody has gigantic amounts of debt. And so when we have a bear market again it is going to be the worst in my lifetime. It has to be.”

Does Jim still own gold and silver?

“ I have cut back enormously, I don’t have many equities that I own these days. I own a few commodities, agriculture, I own some gold, I own some silver..I’ve owned gold and silver for years.”

The Future Of Central Banks

“The US has had three central banks in our history, the first two disappeared for various and sundry reasons. [The current Federal Reserve] is going to disappear too for its own various and sundry reasons, probably not in 2024,  but eventually because they’re making many mistakes which central banks have made before.”

If any of that was enough to whet your appetite then grab a cup of tea and click just here to watch the full conversation.

It’s rare that I get the opportunity to interview somebody who is described as a financial markets guru, a commodities legend, the best selling author of multiple books, and above all else, a true gentleman. But, it is even rarer that I get to do it three times. Luckily for me that is the case when it comes to Jim Rogers, who I spoke to earlier this week. 

Jim first bought gold in 1971 when it was still illegal for Americans to buy gold. Since then he has been on quite a journey in terms of his portfolio and making calls about where to store his ever-growing wealth. Today he is a fountain of historical knowledge and incredible wisdom, yet remains humble about the fact that even he cannot expect to know how things are going to play out. 

With echoes of our conversation with Marc Faber, Jim reminds us why we hold gold: We don’t do it to make a quick profit as one might expect to in the stock market, instead we do it so we can invest in the stock market and still sleep at night. We buy gold for insurance, for peace of mind. 

I always enjoy my chats with Jim, but I think this might be favourite one so far. Let me know what you think. 

Marc Faber, author of the Gloom, Boom and Doom Report is a true legend when it comes to investment, economics and the precious metals markets. We always enjoy having him on GoldCore TV. He has a unique way of assessing the state of play and has no qualms about telling you what he really thinks!

This week he spoke to us about his thoughts on inflation (via a Campbell’s Soup price analysis), the price of gold and why it’s his biggest investment. 

As always, we love to hear your thoughts and feedback on these conversations. And if you have any guests or questions you would like to suggest then please send them our way!

In case you missed it, last week we spoke to Contrarian Investor David Hunter. This is already one of our most popular interviews, so if you haven’t had a chance to watch then I suggest you add it to your list after watching Mr Faber!

Earlier today we spoke to one of our favourite chart experts, Gareth Soloway. 

Since we last spoke to Gareth gold has hit an all time high, silver hasn’t done very much at all and all the while cinder kegs across the world keep sparking.  

We took a few minutes to speak to Gareth about where he expects gold to go next, if silver is going to play catch-up any time soon and what daily close in gold he has his eye on. We also managed to squeeze in some chat about the US economy and crypto. 

Let us know if you think he’s got it right when it comes to changing views on silver, and if you agree with his forecast for gold. 

As ever please let us know your thoughts and comments, we always love to read them. And if you have any questions for future guests, then send them our way. 

2024 is a new year and that means a new bunch of interviews are coming your way on GoldCore TV. First up we have Contrarian Macro Strategist David Hunter. 

Last time David was on the show he made some punchy calls, which were the absolute opposite to what the mainstream was suggesting was going to happen. In April 2022 to predict a Melt Up Boom where we would see the DOW to 45,000, the NASDAQ to 20,000, and the S&P to 6,000, seemed a little foolhardy. But, David was convinced. 

In my chat with David, he had a bit of a ‘I told you so’ moment and deservedly so. We then go onto explore the logic of those earlier predictions, the predictions that haven’t come good and what he foresees in the coming decade. 

This is a really interesting conversation with David, I do hope you’ll enjoy it. Have a listen as he explains why he expects more QE to come in the second half of the 2020s, why this will lead to 25%+ inflation and why this could mean major disaster for the financial system. 

As ever, we love to hear your feedback. Either tweet us @GoldCore.com or email us. 

Happy New Year to you all. This is our first update of 2024. What a way to start a year given gold ended 2023 with its first annual gain in three years, achieving around a 13% climb.

Depending on what you read and who you listen to there were three commonly cited reasons as to why gold really made 2023 shine. 

In no particular order:

• Geopolitical instability 
• Central bank gold purchases
• FOMC Rate Decisions

We’re only four days into the New Year and already two of those are making sure that they will also be key drivers for 2024 as well. We are of course talking about the release of the FOMC’s December minutes and the cinder kegs that keep appearing in the Middle East. 

Yesterday the minutes of the FOMC December meeting were released. Any expectations of a cut in rates starting in March were quickly dampened and realised to be unrealistic, with the minutes instead suggesting that rates will remain high ‘for some time’. 

With markets now having to amend their thinking to the likely chance that rate cuts won’t come until the second-half of the year many will be wondering how this will impact the price of gold. After all, traditional thinking tells us that gold should struggle under a period of rate hikes and tight monetary policy. If a 13% climb is gold ‘struggling’ then we’re looking forward to seeing how it does as interest rates come down. 

FOMC is losing its touch 

As ever, nothing happens in a vacuum. Gold does not only respond to the touch of the FOMC. If anything, it has been becoming desensitised to such announcements. Whilst we watch to see how it reacts to tomorrow’s non-farm payrolls data tomorrow, the reality is that in the medium to long-term gold takes its cue from a number of sources, and the weight of those sources on the gold price has been shifting in recent months. 

Chris Vermeulen on Gold: This Is A Super Cycle At Play

One of those sources is geopolitical tensions, which have already been impacting the price of gold this week. Whether it’s the bombing of a grave in Iran, Israel targeting Hamas members in Lebanon, or just the ongoing carpet bombing of Palestine, no-one is looking at the Middle East and waiting for it all to blow over. Gold has held strong this week, in part thanks to these very recent events.

The events ongoing today have had a long build up (well before October 7th) and gold has reacted accordingly. It has ultimately taken a steady climb, indicating markets’ increasing awareness that it really is a safe haven. Israel’s mission to obliterate Hamas is likely to engulf the Middle East, and draw in the rest of the world for some time to come. Stable times these are not. 

Central Banks Will Continue to Shop 

Luckily not all central banks are focusing on short-term issues such as monetary policy and funding wars. Instead, there are central banks who have been playing the long game as well, and have spent significant time adding gold to their reserves. This is the third factor that helped the gold price, in 2023. 

There is no indication that this will let up in 2024. Some central banks, such as Poland have made it very clear the quantities that they expect to buy up. Other banks, such as China, do not feel the need to make a song and dance about it. We fully expect to see further banks add to their gold reserves in the coming year as they begin to prepare for an increasingly fractious world. 

David Hunter

Later this week we will be speaking to David Hunter, of Contrarian Macroadvisors. We last spoke to him in 2022, when he made some punchy predictions about stock market performance. Send any questions you have for him to @GoldCore on the platform formerly known as Twitter. 

All eyes were on the FOMC yesterday as they met for the final time in 2023. In the weeks running up to the meeting Fed officials stuck to the brief of sounding flexible when it came to questions asked about the direction of rates. For the last few months, FOMC members have repeatedly been asked if they have finally reached the ‘terminal’ rate after a long and onerous task of trying to take down inflation. 

Well, it seems they now all feel they have reached it, as Fed Chair Jay Powell said yesterday that the current rate of 5.5% is “likely at or near its peak for this tightening cycle”. 

17 of the 19 members indicated that they expect rates to be lower by the end of 2024. A cut of up to 0.75% across multiple meetings is expected. Markets are pricing in a near 60% chance that the first of those cuts will come in March 2024. 

In response to the FOMC announcement, gold climbed over 1% and silver by 2.5%, global stocks also soared whilst bonds fell. Markets will also be looking out for announcements from both the Bank of England and European Central Banks, later today. 

Are we there yet?

For what has felt like months, traders have been keen to know if the FOMC is finished with their rate hikes. It was expected that this was the peak of rates as inflation and other economic indicators increased convictions that the FOMC had arrived at where they felt they needed to be. 

Chris Vermeulen on Gold: This Is A Super Cycle At Play

However, while there is still officially inflation in the economy, is now the right time to entertain the idea of upcoming rate cuts? One could argue that the Fed will now have made its inflation fight even harder as looser conditions could see a further wave of unbridled spending and borrowing from businesses and consumers, thus starting the whole cycle again. 

Of course, we all know that the current fight on inflation isn’t really fighting inflation. It’s more like a small battle in a very long, drawn out and damaging war. The Fed may well have brought down headline inflation, but they are yet to confront the real firepower that is sticky core inflation brought about by years of QE and low rates. 

More to come…

The FOMC isn’t the only one tidying things up before the end of the year. Both the Bank of England’s MPC and the European Central Bank are set to hold their respective rate setting meetings. 

The Bank Of England is fighting a battle against a very stubborn inflation issue. Few expect them to start cutting rates as soon as their peers do. Currently there is little evidence that the economy is ready for rates to be cut. 

The ECB meanwhile is seeing some progress, with inflation at a two-year low. Investors expect to see rate cuts coming soon. 

Policy by stealth?

So if (the majority) of major central banks are feeling punchy about their inflation victory what does this mean for gold? As we’ve seen this year, gold has become less sensitive to rate  hikes, instead choosing to play its own tune. Whilst it did react to the FOMC news last night, it has been holding its own throughout the year. We will watch with some interest to see how it will respond to monetary policy in 2024. Of course, low rates are traditionally good for gold, but this year the inverse has been the case. We think we are starting to see a slight decoupling of the long-term relationship between rates and the price of gold, watch this space. 

As we head to the new year it is worth noting one of the major trends of 2023 – central bank gold buying. For many gold bugs there will come a day when gold is central to the international monetary system. For decades the bulk of goldbugs have suggested this will come about as a result of a collapse in the US dollar i.e. the global monetary system. 

Instead what we are starting to see is a change in the international monetary system by stealth, rather than by policy. We’re talking about the increase in gold reserves by a number of central banks. Central bankers have been net buyers of gold for some time now, without feeling the need to make any announcements. 

Changes in the geopolitical state of play has clearly prompted central bankers (as well as individuals) to question the status quo when it comes to managing their international finances. As a result, they’re turning to the ultimate insurance – physical gold. 

With very little set to improve in the coming years, whether it  is money supply, the MIddle East, the Russia-Ukraine war and even climate change, we think 2024 will prove to be another pivotal one for gold, with or without monetary policy announcements. 

Gold may not have managed to sustain the record high from the start of the week but it has remained firmly above $2,000. At the time of writing it is trading just below $2,050, a key resistance level. The price has shown very little interest in the usually much anticipated US jobs report, which came in below expectations. Nor did it indicate much interest in the Bank of Canada’s interest rate decision, on Wednesday. 

One wonders if an increasing number of gold market stakeholders are beginning to take a longer-term view and realising that central bank announcements or economic data can do very little to dispel the growing concerns that the current state of play for both global debt and global stability is no longer sustainable. 

If you’re wondering what caused Monday morning’s pop-up in gold, or what the rest of the month may hold then have a look at our quick chat with technical analyst Chris Vermuellen. 

Gold Outlook 2024

The World Gold Council has today released its much revered Gold Outlook 2024 report. As we have seen in 2023 the WGC expects central bank interest rate decisions and global economic performance to be the main focus for the gold market and therefore (based on historical performance) we may see ‘a flat to slightly weaker’ gold price. However, the WGC points out that there are two very significant factors which may drive gold higher. 

World War III?

The first of these is ‘Geopolitical risks’ which ‘abound’, according to the WGC. And we couldn’t agree more. Looking at the map of the world today is akin to looking at a series of interconnected cinder kegs, each of which could represent a push towards a new era of conflict and a fight to be the next superpower. Battles which had previously calmed down or at least not drawn the attention of the global media seem to have now reemerged. Governments are scrambling to protect their own interests whilst seeking out alliances who of course have their own agendas. 

Chris Vermeulen on Gold: This Is A Super Cycle At Play

The surprise talks between Putin and Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman reportedly involved discussions regarding OPEC+, cooperation over oil and the situation in the Middle East. This comes a week after OPEC+announced it would be cutting supply and one day after China’s oil imports were revealed to be down for another month. 

Meanwhile the US continues to support the fight against Russia, by Ukraine and the battle against Hamas by Israel. The US and her allies’ allegiance to Israel and Ukraine is pushing the Middle East and Russia closer together. All whilst the West watches on and tries to fight its own moral and economic battles. 

Fact Two: Central Banks Can’t Get Enough Gold

The second factor which will continue to have a positive effect on the price of gold is central bank demand. In October alone central banks added a net total of 42 tonnes of gold, with the People’s Bank of China being the biggest buyer. Year-to-date gold buying heavily outweighs sales, a trend that the WGC expects to continue for the rest of the quarter. Overall gold purchases by central banks in 2023 is expected to have added a 10% boost to the yellow metal’s price, according to the latest Outlook report. 

Headline space has also been taken up by news of Poland’s gold purchases. The central bank now holds around 300t of gold. It is believed to be looking to add gold to its reserves to bring its gold-to-GDP ratio in line with that of other eurozone members. 

A recession off the table?

Geopolitics and central bank buying aside we do still have the matter of the global economy to contend with, specifically the United States. US government debt now represents more than one-third of total global government debt which means all eyes are on the country to see just how its economy is doing and how it can service the debt. 

For the majority of 2023 markets have been highly sensitive to moves being taken by the Fed. So far the FOMC has impressed in its management of inflation and avoiding a recession. Consensus seems to be that a recession will be avoided, instead Jay Powell has steered the country towards a ‘soft landing’. But, this is not guaranteed and it does not mean that the impact of higher interest rates has been fully realised. 

So whilst soft landings have not always been good news for the gold price, we would posit that the latent impact of increased rates on the US economy combined with geopolitical events and central bank buying will set gold up for a stellar 2024. 

When we woke up to see gold had hit an all-time high overnight we knew we needed to take a look at some charts. And who better to do that with than technical analyst Chris Vermuelen of TechnicalTraders.com. 

GoldCore CEO, Dave Russell took some time this afternoon to speak with Chris about what took the gold price to new all-time highs, why it has now pulled back and what does the long-term horizon look like?

It’s not just the gold price they cover in this 20 minute chat, look out for gold miners, uranium stocks and silver futures. 

As ever, we love to hear your thoughts on these videos and what the gold price means for your investment strategy. Does today’s performance have you buying more gold or do you think a bigger pullback is coming? Let us know! 

Overnight gold stunned markets by obliterating resistance levels and rocketing up to a new all-time high of $2,148.99. 

As well as a new level we might also have seen a new standard in volatility being set as the yellow metal experienced $100 intraday swings. 

This morning gold has calmed itself down a bit. But make no mistake, we are in a new era for the gold price. 

What drove it so high? As always, it’s rarely down to one reason. Gold has had a stellar year due to a confluence of factors. And the reasons for last night’s pop are really no different. 

• The US Dollar’s 3.5% fall since November has given non-USD buyers the upper hand when it comes to gold purchases. 
• No one should be surprised that gold climbs when there are wars raging. It’s probably the oldest reason in the book for buying gold. When there is geopolitical uncertainty citizens, investors and central banks alike put their financial allegiance into gold. This year, with Ukraine and the Middle East showing little let-up, the reason to hold gold is stronger than ever. 
• And many might point to the Russian sanctions as to why gold has become popular amongst central banks, but data quite clearly shows that demand was strong prior to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. This is down to countries slowly turning away from US dollar reliance and instead to an independent currency, such as gold.
• Finally (a less fun one to explain) gold has also been given room to perform thanks to the drop in real rates which have dropped by 50 basis points since the peak in October. Markets are now pricing in up to 4 cuts from The Fed next year. Will other Central Banks be far behind?

At the time of writing gold is now back down around $2,067, so did gold run ahead of itself, given it’s now backed off from its all-time high? Perhaps, but the move did happen during a low liquidity trading session which gives it more capacity for bigger swings.

However, the tone has now been set for what we can expect from gold. Given much of its performance this year has been despite the lack of ETF buying, we expect to see an even stronger, more sustained performance when investors turn back to ETFs; something we believe is inevitable given the growing sentiment around owning the yellow metal. 

So whilst many might have seen the price this morning and wondered if they’ve missed the boat we would argue the boat is very much still in the dock but be prepared for some choppy months ahead.