HerculeHolmes

I'm still holding I3E.L and RECO.V. Stimulus spending should be good for metals and oil.

I'm cautious on oil, but I do see it holding up for at least another year. It will take several years for battery vehicles to make serious inroads into fuel demand.
I don't own any of the big boys. Currently I have Reconnaissance Energy Africa (RECO.V), Diversified Gas and Oil (DGOC.L) and I3 Energy (I3E.L). RECO is an interesting play in Namibia with good prospects. DGOC pays a huge dividend. I3E is tiny but looks undervalued.

Interesting perspective, it is true that big oil is an easy target given the environment (politically I mean). But in our legal system, if its not a specific event I don't see how 'damage to the environment' can be laid on the producers, who's fault is the damage to the environment, the guy producing it or the guy burning it in his car. Deep water horizon has cost BP tens of billions already, but it was specific to them. Shell's problems in Nigeria are specific to spills. If the green lobby are serious though the way they would do it is political lobbying for charges or taxes of some kind, Biden has already done some damage to the market with his no fracking, but this is ironically good for oil producers who now have reduced capital expenditure, and bad for everyone else who will be paying the resulting high prices in a few years. 
On juniors I have no recommendations, I am going to look at what the funds are doing and research from their picks first.

Although I think the oil price will continue to recover, I am reluctant to buy big oil like BP and Shell because I think it is only a matter of time before the environmental lobby try to sue them for damaging the environment. I am on the lookout for undervalued juniors that may go under the radar. Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ) looks good value, but is probably too big. Reconnaissance Energy Africa (RECO.V) is a good size but it may be a little expensive given that it has had a strong run already in the last three months. Any other ideas?

You said "Oil is used mainly for plastics and pharmaceutical industry"  that isn't true as per the US government data 
Profit margins may be better but does a company like Shell or BP make more from the plastics and pharmaceutical industry than transport? you would need to show me a breakdown of profits because that doesn't seem right 
 
 

Your missing the point. Profit margins I work in the oil industry.

https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/oil-and-petroleum-products/use-of-oil.php#:~:text=We use petroleum products to,intermediate and end-user goods.
Transportation 68% Industrial 26% Residential 3% Commercial 2% Electric power < 1%

Oil has a misconception also. People think it's profit margin is from cars and petroleum. It's not. Oil is used mainly for plastics and pharmaceutical industry and that's where the profits lie.

Gentlemen, please.
https://dictionary.cambridge.org/dictionary/english/cheque

Q2 2019 Shells revenue was 85.6b but their net income was only 2.99b, that was with high demand and $50+ a barrel 
When margins are tight like that you can't say only 10% because that's the difference between them making money or losing billions; that along with oil prices being in the gutter meant they lost -18 billion in Q2 2020 - Shells net income in all of 2019 was $15,8b and they lost -18b in one quarter
They obviously restructured and their Q3 very good with a $955 net income, shows they can not only ride out lower demand and $40 oil but still be profitable
That was without lockdowns though, now Europe is starting to close up again at a time oil production has started to increase will we see a build up of oil in storage again that's going to need to be worked through? is that going to supress oil prices further? 
The best thing about oil stocks is that we can guess all we want what will happen next but we will know exactly when things have switched more positive because we will see it in the stock prices and volume

It's a matter of timescales. Whoever wins the US election, there will be a lot more stimulus spending and a lot of debt monetization, and some of this money will find its way into the stock market. On a shorter timescale (between now and the year end) there may be a lot of tax loss/tax gain selling. Biden might increase capital gains tax. It only needs US investors to think that he might, and they will realize any gains they currently have before the year end to lock in a lower tax rate. This would cause a fall in the next two months followed by a rise in January when the buying back starts.

I've heard people say the s&p500 could be in a very large megaphone pattern and it does match up 
The top is about +4% and the bottom is -40% 
No idea if this will be prove to be of any relevance but if I throw enough ___ at the wall something will stick and I can say "ahh see, I was right" lol 

 

OPEC are due to make a decision on production levels next month. If they fail to set a limit, it could see prices a lot lower and provide a further buying opportunity. I’m keeping my powder dry until this announcement. 

Shell will make returns over the next few years in accordance with rising oil and gas prices. The market thinks oil is dead about 30 years too early hence the market gift of £9 shell and £2 bp (insane yield on BP at this price).
Returns depend on how high oil goes, for shell $60 oil is $20 billion free cashflow, at $70 its $30 billion, so on and so forth. When inflation picks up oil will be 3 digits mid decade, I expect new all time highs. Depends on how low it goes and how long it stays there over the next few months. 

I've put £1,200 into Royal Dutch Shell because it sounds like a safe enough investment  (I at least don't expect to lose money on it) but really I have no idea how much it's going to be worth 5 or 10 or 15 years from now. Will it go back up to it's old 2018/2019 value, or will it NEVER return to that level?

BP and Shell are all about the price of oil. It has been stuck around $40 for a while now. For as long as it stays there, oil companies' woes will continue. You should not expect a recovery in the share prices unless you believe that oil will ruturn to at least $60 or so. At present, there is still a glut in production, and stocks of oil reserves are growing. The Saudis and the Russians have been cutting back a little, but both are under enormous fiscal pressure and will increase production on any sign of increased demand. Meanwhile the plague has depressed economic activity and reduced demand. A game changer would be the USA deciding to ban fracking, but Biden has said he will not do that. It is not really a happy time to own oil stocks, though like others here I will keep a close eye on them with a view to buying back in.

Does anyone know why Anglo Pacific Group (APF.L) is so cheap? I bought them two years ago at about 140, and then sold at about 190. They are now back down to 105. This is a stable, reliable company on a P/E of 7, paying a dividend of over 6%. It is a royalty company with assets in base metals and potash. I understand that it owns thermal coal royalties and these are of diminishing value, but even so, this seems ridiculously cheap for a royalty company. I'm looking to buy back in.

This should be positive for the share price naturally, and there is never a more sensible time for buy backs than at the lows. This is the kind of action you would expect from good management.

Thanks for highlighting this, I like the look of APF from the 2020 AGM slides and looking through the royalties page on the website. I will do a bit more digging. My first thought for its performance is sentiment, caught up in the same wave of irrationality as the rest of the energy stocks but it appears well diversified. They say in the slides they are not making any more investments into coal, which perhaps like BP saying it will move away from oil has had the same effect on investors who have sold to look elsewhere for someone who will invest in coal. Coking coal is used exclusively for steel production? If so I don't understand the move away from it, we are going to need more not less over the next decade. 

Maybe they have not bottomed, maybe they have, who knows mate. The idea was not to try catch the bottom it was to build exposure to sectors that will do well in the industrial cycle. All year I have been saying it, telecoms, energy, mining, while the market hated on them and bought tech, Tesla, Apple, etc. Now the sectors get some action, is it the market wising up or is it as the article says, new entrants seeing value in 25 year lows and taking a punt on a bounce back, I would expect the latter. Which means as you say there could be more downside in the short term, I was hoping for a few more months of buying in oil I really like Total and had missed it until recently. We will see. 
I am hearing calls for oil to be $50+ by year end, that would not be the best case in my view as the best returns will come from a true shake out in the oil industry, killing off shale with sub $40 oil for a period of months. BP can break even on $35 a barrel, shell is aiming for $30. Imagine break even at $30 a barrel when oil is at $80-$100 end of 2021, no new entrants coming into the market (because oil is dead right) CAPEX massively reduced, where are all those profits going? Hopefully not all into windmills  most of it will go to share holders via buy backs and dividends but we will see. 
I don't think the market is buying oil for the reasons we have been exploring here, it is bargain hunting and gambling on a bounce back but who knows, once the stock is bought for a punt it can easily turn into an investment if circumstances turn positive, lets hope not for my desired position in Total's sake.
May I ask what are the green stocks you are looking at please anything UK based?  

Buying BP at 25 year lows what is not to like. The downside is possible, risk of further downside vs reward of potential upside, you make the call, you know what I think. Always a chance they go bust of course, tentative is definitely appropriate with share picking in a contrarian/hated sector. If it was easy all the monkeys would be doing it. 
Returning to normal will not happen for a while yet, logically the 'Conservatives' (Stalinists with a 9 year plan) will want to see out winter first, with flu season on its way and a population with weak immunity due to being separated from each other all year. It will likely be the worst flu season we have seen for a long time, plus corona virus on top. After that, maybe the Stanlists in charge will let us back out of our prison cells, I don't think people will put up with it for another year. Account also for all the horror stories coming out from hospitals regarding euthanasia, critical race theory reintroduced into society by BLM, all the job losses that are coming, inflation, higher energy bills, etc - unrest will start to bubble over. They can't keep us locked down forever or we will see another poll tax riots equivalent and likely worse. 
For oil supply is as much a part of the picture as demand, supply has cratered and inventories are being burned through a lot faster than expected. However ideally I would want to see oil fall below $40 again for a while to reap the best long term gains, flush out the rest of the fracking companies and the smaller players, then the majors can cherry pick the best assets and after that cut capex as no new entrants will be coming into the market for years. They will have huge cashflow in a couple of years time which they will use to pay down debt, spin off dividends and share buy backs. BP should return roughly 20% compounding per year between dividends and share buy backs (6% yield + 15% of cash into buybacks as announced).

Returning to normal is taking a lot longer that I'd hoped. 3 weeks they said... Now we're into a second wave (or so they claim, personally I am very suspicious about the numbers) and can't help but feel a conspiracy theory atmosphere in the air like it's all to do with stopping Brexit and replacing Donald Trump and desensitizing us into living in a less free world. This is not the same world we were living in 1 year ago.
But I am hopeful (if that's the right word) that oil is still going to be the big thing for decades to come. I've started putting some cash into Shell and BP on Trading 212 (about £700). Maybe I should be using a different platform.. I don't really know much but Trading 212 is the only one I've used so far. Gotta start somewhere though.

Its not going to happen smoothly in the timeframes that government wants, it will take drastic measures to implement and have far reaching consequences to our standard of living and the competitiveness of the UK economy. The initial target was 2050 all electric, reasonable, if unlikely, now they have said they will stop people buying conventional vehicles from 2030! All electric by 2030 is insane, 9 years from now there will be no conventional vehicles on the roads only electric? The only way to achieve that is with huge subsidies for electric along with tyrannical measures, including the stick of financial penalties for using conventional, though some of the later is coming anyway in the form of higher oil prices. The economic cost will be enormous and we will price ourselves out of competition against non EV nations. Anything we do or produce will have the huge overhead of expensive transport/commute tagged on to the price, while other nations carry on with oil and undercut and enjoy a higher standard of living. Nothing about it is good for the UK or its people. Likely that is the reason they are doing it.  
The result of achieving this will be to take two thirds of the cars off the road, as you say, too expensive for 90% of people to buy - this will force most people to use mass transport or walk/bike everywhere. A huge drop in standard of living. Most people will not be buying and maintaining electric cars at the prices they will command when demand is 95% higher. The state will make driving something for the elite and well off (that's how they like it). This would solve the issue of congested roads and it would have far reaching economic repercussions; the covid economy is perhaps a good glimpse as to what it would look like. People working from home with the rest on a form of UBI (furlough), perhaps that is what covid has been about all along, getting people used to working from home, quiet roads and UBI. The artificial trigger needed for the test run reform of the economy. Regardless, unless they keep covid going for the next 9 years the 2030 goal is not happening, once things return to 'normal', people will not play ball until they are given incentive to do so and no one is going to deliberate hamstring themselves by increasing transport costs either personally or in business. How many white van men are going to hand over the LGV for an expensive electric equivalent? How many businesses are going to sell the fleet of cheap cars for the enormous capital and ongoing cost of an electric equivalent? How many people are willing to give up convivence of a diesel or petrol car for the privilege of monthly battery rental whether they drive it or not. 
This is just the UK. EV sales are only currently 2% of global car market. Oil is going no where soon from the big picture, it doesn't matter what action they take here. Also consider that China is the largest EV market in terms of take up in the world now, they also have the cheapest electricity costs in the world because they burn coal to produce it. They understand economics and that energy is everything, they also could care less about the climate nonsense as there is nothing 'green' about any of this EV stuff. As soon as you start digging you work it out pretty quickly and are left wondering why we are pushing this nonsense so hard to our detriment.

Yellow cake is one I have been watching on 212. I have not looked at it, thought it was a mine. LOL. There is not a lot to choose from on 212, so Cameco seemed a good bet. I did not expect denison to fall as much as it did. If it physical uranium I think thats a better idea than having a few kg's in my garage.

I need to put some time into it, but its not urgent - so will observe yellow cake I think. Yes seen the rick rule stuff. 

I've just started reading this Q&A thread on reddit , quite interesting - https://old.reddit.com/r/IAmA/comments/is5qrd/ive_had_a_71year_career_in_nuclear_energy_and/
"I’ve had a 71-year career in nuclear energy and have seen many setbacks but believe strongly that nuclear power can provide a clean, reliable, and relatively inexpensive source of energy to the world. AMA""